Surf’s Up For Green Wave In Cure Bowl Against Louisiana

tulane football

Rainman M.

Friday, December 7, 2018 1:34 PM UTC

Friday, Dec. 7, 2018 1:34 PM UTC

Get the latest college football picks on the Cure Bowl between Tulane and Louisiana. The game from Orlando is on Saturday, December 15 at 1:30 p.m. ET on CBSSN. Bet confidently with tips from SBRpicks.com.

Cure Bowl: Tulane (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) vs Louisiana (7-6 SU, 9-4 ATS)Saturday, Dec. 15, 1:30 p.m. ET (CBSSN)Camping World Stadium, OrlandoFree NCAAF Pick: Tulane ATSBest Line Offered: Bookmaker

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Tulane makes its first bowl appearance since 2013 and its first under coach Willie Fritz. Tulane fired its offensive coordinator and Alex Atkins, who is the assistant head coach, offensive line coach, and run-game coordinator, will assume play-calling duties. Like Tulane’s, Louisiana coach Billy Napier will be looking for his first bowl win with his team.

How They Got Here

Tulane became bowl eligible in its final game of the regular season. The Green Wave were down by seven with less than two minutes left against Navy when they scored a touchdown and the two-point conversion to win their sixth game.

Louisiana overcame a slow start to the season under its first-year head coach and won three of its last four regular season games to become bowl eligible. It won the Sun Belt West and lost the conference championship game against heavily favored App State. Tulane is 4-7 all-time in bowls, ULL 4-1.

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⏩ Next phase.
⬇️ Is the.
▶️ Best phase. #cULture | #GeauxCajuns pic.twitter.com/LCRK61UJ7h

— Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns® Football (@RaginCajunsFB) 6 de dezembro de 2018
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Why Louisiana Will Win/Cover

The Ragin’ Cajuns excel in a betting sense against one-dimensional, run-first offenses. They are 3-0 ATS when allowing fewer than 150 passing yards, 4-0 ATS when allowing less than 160. Two of those covers came against App State, which accrued a lot of rushing yards, but lacked the quarterback play to score enough points for the cover.

Tulane's offense is run-first. It calls the 12th-highest frequency of run plays and passed for fewer than 150 yards in three of its last five games. Louisiana is only slightly less run-first. Its two work horses are Trey Ragas and Elijah Mitchell, each a bruiser who weighs 220+ pounds. ULL is 5-2 ATS when Ragas runs for 100+. Overall, Louisiana is doing well for its backers. It’s covered three of its past four, whereas Tulane is on a three-game ATS losing streak.

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Why Tulane Will Win/Cover

Teams run on ULL with the eighth-highest frequency and Tulane is built to run. It runs with the 12th-highest frequency and averages 4.5 YPC, which ranks 52nd. Two different running backs average at least 5.9 YPC, Darius Bradwell 5.9 and Corey Dauphine 6.5.

ULL’s defense is vulnerable to Tulane. It allows five YPC, which ranks 99th in the category. The Cajuns’ defensive line constantly gets beat in the trenches. It ranks 120th in stuff rate, meaning that it rarely stops opposing running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage. Plus, one of its key members, Zi’Yon Hill, had surgery and his status for the game is up in the air. The d-line already suffered considerable losses in the offseason and Hill was one of the team’s leading tacklers despite missing a few games. Tulane is 3-0 ATS when running for 300+ yards.

Common Opponent/Series History

Both teams faced a top-tiered team. The Cajuns lost to Bama 56-14. The Green Wave lost to Ohio State 49-6. Historically, Tulane is 4-2 against ULL, but the Cajuns have covered four of six.

The Verdict

Unlike App State, which had its starter injured for the season, Tulane has depth at running back. The Green Wave’s duo of Bradwell and Dauphine will run over ULL’s defense. Plus, its offense will get more balance than App State’s did. In two of the past three games, quarterback Justin McMillan threw for over 290 yards and achieved a passer rating over 170 against Navy and East Carolina. What ties those teams with Louisiana’s secondary is that they rank outside the top 100 in opposing passer rating. ULL’s secondary is very physical and has been surprisingly effective against physical receivers like App State's. But Tulane’s are built rather differently. For example, Tulane’s top guy is Darnell Mooney, a speedster who averages over 20 yards per reception.

Tulane struggles against rushing attacks that make it account for a scrambling quarterback like Houston’s and Cincinnati’s. On the flip side, they have owned those elite rushing attacks like Memphis's and South Florida's that lack a mobile threat at quarterback even though they possess some stars at running back like Darrell Henderson of Memphis. The Cajuns don’t have a mobile quarterback and their rush attack won’t succeed against Tulane’s run defense that allows fewer than four YPC.

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