Confident NCAA Football Pick ATS: Fresno St. vs. Boise St.

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, December 3, 2014 7:27 PM UTC

Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2014 7:27 PM UTC

There is going to be clear domination in the College Football matchup between Fresno State and Boise State, and this handicapper is eager to explain why in this report.

Each week in the Pointspread Prognosis, I develop my College Football pick based on a contest in which one of the teams will clearly dominate their opponent at the point of attack.  In so doing, they will either double rush their opponent or they will record 200+ yards, both running and passing, while their opponent does not.  Either of these scenarios results in a 75% opportunity for our dominant team to cover the pointspread.  Last week, our CFB STEAMROLLER was Texas St., who outrushed Georgia St. 340-160 en route to gaining 607 total yards in a 54-31 “easy as pie” win and cover.  This week, we go to the Mountain West Championship game for pointspread outcome which could be just as easy.   

These two teams met on October 18th.   Boise emerged with a 37-27 victory on this field as 17 point favorite on the College Football odds.  A closer look inside the numbers of that contest shows us that Boise gained 267 yards running and 228 yards passing, while holding Fresno to a season-low in yardage of 313 yards.  Yet, the Broncos did not get the cover in a 37-27 victory!  Should this game play out with similar statistical numbers, the pointspread result will be different.  Fresno ascends to this title game as winner of the Mountain West-West division.  It is clearly the weaker of the divisions with as many as 4 teams from the Mountain West Mountain (Boise, Utah St., Colorado St. and Air Force) all having far superior records to the Bulldogs.  As an indication of this, Fresno won the division with a 5-3 SU record to finish just 6-6 SU for the season.  A season ending 3 game winning streak looks promising until you understand it was against divisional weak links, San Jose, Nevada and Hawaii.  In reality, even with those wins, the Fresno defense is a Defensive Dud.  They allow 33 PPG, 468 YPG and 6.2 YP play.  Overland, they allow 212/4.7 and through the air, 256/8.5.  The Boise offense will destroy them!

Under 1st year HC Harsin (Arkansas St., former OC Boise St.), The Broncos have begun to look like Boise teams of old.  After a relatively slow offensive start and 3-2 SU ATS record, Boise has exploded down the stretch to win 7 consecutive games, scoring 50 or more points in 5 of them.   Combined with an improving defense, which allows just 363/5.4, the Broncos have outgained their opposition in that timeframe by an average of 498-268.

Last season, Fresno defeated Utah St. (24-17) in the 1st ever MWC Championship game.  Tonight, they get blown out on the Boise Blue Turf.  Looking for motivation? Consider that an impressive victory, including “style points,” will solidify Boise as the No. 1 non-power team in the country and a highly profitable New Years’ Day Bowl bid and payout.   

Free College Football Pick: Boise State -21.5 at 5Dimes

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