Colorado State Road Cover vs. Nevada for College Football Picks

Darin Zank

Thursday, October 9, 2014 5:48 PM GMT

Colorado State is off to a great start to this season, winning four of its first five games, cashing in at 4-1 ATS. The Rams now go in search of their first Mountain West victory when they visit Reno to take on the Wolf Pack of Nevada Saturday night.

 

The Betting Odds
Most of the college football odds opened this game at right around a pick 'em, with a total of 60, but as of Thursday morning Colorado State had been bet into a two-point road favorite, and the total had been bumped to 61.

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Rams-Wolf Pack Game Set-Up
Colorado State is off to a 4-1 start to this season both SU and ATS. The Rams opened with a 31-17 victory over rival Colorado in Denver, winning outright as three-point dogs. They then opened MWC play by losing at Boise State 37-24, missing the cover as seven-point dogs. CSU then beat Cal-Davis 49-21, covering at -23, then flew cross-country and upset Boston College 24-21 as six-point dogs. And last week the Rams beat Tulsa 42-17, covering at -18.

Colorado State outgained the Golden Hurricane last week 532-390 and outrushed them 234-127.

The Rams trailed BC three weeks ago 21-14 through three quarters, then scored the last 10 points of the game.

CSU senior quarterback Garrett Grayson has completed 61 percent of his passes this season, with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions. He's dealing with a sore shoulder, but is expected to start Saturday.

Meanwhile, Nevada is 3-2 both SU and ATS this season. The Pack opened with a 28-19 win over Southern Utah, but couldn't cover as 24-point favorites. They then upset Washington State 24-13, winning outright as three-point home dogs. They then lost at Arizona 35-28, but covered as 20-point dogs, and then won at San Jose State 21-10, covering as six-point favorites.

Last week Nevada battled gamely but lost at home to Boise State 51-46, coming up just short of covering as a three-point home dog. The Pack got outgained by the Broncos 570-462, outrushed 224-156 and lost time-of-possession by a 35-25 margin. So maybe they didn't deserve to cover the spread.

So far this season Nevada senior QB Cody Fajardo has completed 64 percent of his throws, with seven TD passes and five interceptions, and run for 317 yards and five more scores.

 

Rams-Wolf Pack Recent History
These programs have met 11 times since 1997, with Colorado State winning nine of those match-ups. Last year the Rams beat the Wolf Pack 38-17 in Fort Collins, covering as nine-point favorites. Nevada actually led that game 17-16 late in the third quarter, but CSU scored the last 22 points for the win and cover. The Rams outgained the Pack that day 570-411 and outrushed 'em 331-164.

Before last year's game these teams hadn't met since 2010.

 

Rams-Wolf Pack Betting Trends
Colorado State is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 games overall, and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games.

These teams are a combined 3-7 on the totals this season, even though both their games have averaged 57 total points. It's just that the totals on their games have been posted in the high 50s and 60s.

 

Rams-Wolf Pack Free Pick
Colorado State has outgained four of its five opponents this season; Nevada has been outgained each of its last four games. And that tells us something. So we'll go with the Rams, at the -2 points offered at 5Dimes, for our free college football picks.