College Football Week 6 Free Picks - Georgia Southern Eagles vs Arkansas State Red Wolves

Georgia Southern Eagles players celebrating

Ross Benjamin

Monday, October 3, 2016 6:13 PM GMT

Our sports handicapping professional went an excellent 10-1 with his week 5 college football picks. Join us in reading his persuasive betting preview article on Wednesday’s Georgia Southern and Arkansas State game.

 Georgia Southern vs. Arkansas State

Arkansas State seeks its first win of the season when they host Sun Belt Conference rival Georgia Southern on Wednesday. The opening kickoff from Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, Arkansas is slated for 8:00 PM ET. At the time of this writing (10/3), college football odds shows Georgia Southern as a 7.0-point road favorite.

 

Huge Rushing and Time of Possession Advantages

Through its first 4 contests, Georgia Southern is averaging a quite sizable 318 offensive rushing yards per game. The Eagles have also done an outstanding job of stopping the run, allowing just 78 yards per game, and limiting their opponents to measly 2.6 yards per attempt. Given those statistical facts, it’s easy to understand why they’ve had the ball 11:10 per game more than their opponents.

Conversely, Arkansas State is allowing a hefty 239 rushing yards per game, and that includes 4.8 yards per attempt. The Red Wolves haven’t enjoyed much success at all running the football, evidenced by a paltry 81 yard per game average, and brutal 2.3 yards per attempt. Arkansas State has held the ball for 8:06 less per game than their first 4 opponents.

 

College Football Betting Angle & Prediction

Arkansas State is off to a dismal 0-4 start, and Georgia Southern will come in at 3-1 (.750). Arkansas State is coming off a 28-23 home loss to Central Arkansas (FCS). When combining this data with current betting odds on this contest, it produces a never lost betting angle which I’ve illustrated below.

Since 2012, any conference away favorite of 8.0 or less (Georgia Southern), owning a win percentage of .545 to .750, versus an opponent (Arkansas State) coming off a loss by 30 points or less, and they possess a .250 or less win percentage, resulted in those away favorites going a perfect 18-0 SU&ATS. The average margin of victory in those 18 contests was a convincing 22.2 points per game.

Arkansas State hasn’t only lost its first 4 games, they failed to cover in each of them. They’ve been outscored by 19.3 points per contest. Since 1980, home underdogs of 3.5 to 16.0, playing in game 5 of their season, and they’re 0-4 SU&ATS during its first 4 contests, resulted in those home underdogs going 0-4 SU&ATS, and they lost by 28.3 points per outing.

There’s just too many factors supporting the road favorite, and they’ll be one of my college football week 6 predictions.

 

Free NCAAF Pick: Georgia Southern -7
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker
ATS College Football Week 5 Record:  10-1

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