College Football Week 4 Predictions - Top Totals Plays For Late Action

Oregon Ducks players in field

Mark Lathrop

Saturday, October 1, 2016 3:13 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 1, 2016 3:13 PM UTC

There are some huge matchups this weekend and if you want to take a break from taking a side and enjoy the game, why not play the total instead? Expert capper gives his top totals for you to cash some NCAAF picks.


As Week 5 of College Football comes to a close and we look forward to NFL on Sunday, let’s cash some tickets on three totals that look to have great wagering value.


Louisville Cardinals vs Clemson Tigers   

We all know that this game features two of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the country, but it also features two of the best defenses in the country as well. Especially Clemson, who is allowing only an average of 11 points per game on the season. I know one offense will figure it out eventually, but with a total of 68 on the board, one or two quarters of offensive ineptitude by just one side should be enough to push this game under the total listed.

Louisville hasn’t come up against a defense this good in compiling its perfect 4-0 Over streak to start the season. Clemson’s perfect 4-0 streak of cashing the Unders will be on the line as well. This figures to be a game with a bunch of hype, so each team may come out a little tight to try to feel each other out in the first half. Look for Clemson’s defense at home to have enough energy to stop Louisville keeping low scores for you college football week 5 picks, as I like the Tigers straight up in this game as well.


Free NCAAF Pick: Under 68 
Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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Oregon Ducks vs Washington State Cougars 

I’ve backed the Cougars to go Over their total a few times, and other than their game against Eastern Washington University they have let me down. This matchup is a little different, with the Oregon Ducks bringing a perfect storm of defensive ineptitude to the Palouse. Washington State’s Luke Falk passed for 505 yards on 50 of 75 passing in their game last year, so there will be no reason to change the game plan at all in this game.

The Cougars come into this game after a bye week, as they slaughtered the Idaho Vandals two weeks ago, 56-6. That defensive performance against the outmatched Vandals has skewed Wazzu’s season long defensive stats, but they have still allowed over 324 yards per game in the air. They will be prepared to attack the Ducks with Mike Leach’s patented ‘air raid’ offense, and the Ducks will have to play catch up most of the game. Each team could hit the 40’s in this match up, making Over the play listed at 75 across the board.

Free NCAAF Pick: Over 75 
Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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San Diego State Aztecs vs South Alabama Jaguars  

Is I stated in my ATS picks, the Aztecs have one of the best running games in the country right now, gaining an average of 260.7 yards per game on the ground. That just happens to coincide with the poor rushing defense of the Jaguars, who allow an average of 240 yards per game on the ground – near the bottom of the FBS standings.

The Aztecs are near the top of the country in rushing defense, and South Alabama only puts up 112.3 yards per game on the ground. They do put up some yards in the air at 282.5 per game, but their 5 passing touchdowns in 4 games tells me the Jaguars won’t be able to come back on the Aztecs if they build any kind of lead at all. This has all of the characteristics of a classic mismatch, and it looks like San Diego State could build up a lead here and be able to eat clock, which should keep this game from going over the total of 51.5 currently listed at BetOnline.


Free NCAAF Pick: Under 51.5 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline
2016 College Football Record: 12-12-1, -1.30 Units

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