College Football Week 4 Predictions - Applying Betting Tends & Angles

Army Black Knights team making an entrance to the field

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, September 21, 2016 2:22 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 21, 2016 2:22 PM UTC

Our sports handicapping professional shares a couple of his college football week 4 betting trends. He also illustrates how to apply pertinent team statistics, and convert them into extremely profitable college football betting angles.

Pittsburgh Panthers vs North Carolina Tar Heels
Pittsburgh has seen each of their previous 2 games go over the total, and there was a combined average of 82.0 points scored per contest. As a matter of fact, those 2 contests went over the total by a cumulative 61.5 points.

North Carolina has also gone over the total in each of its last 2 games, and there was a combined average of 77.5 points scored per contest. Additionally, North Carolina will be facing a Pittsburgh team that averages 36.0 points scored per contest. Since 2014, they’ve gone 10-2 over the total when facing opponents averaging 31.0 or more points scored per game.

The Tar Heels ball security has been excellent thus far, evidenced by them committing only 2 turnovers in 3 games (0.67 PG). North Carolina committed 1 turnover during their 56-28 win over James Madison in its previous contest.  Current (9/20) college football betting odds at Bookmaker has a posted total of 67.5 on this contest. Which leads us to a very successful college football betting angle exhibited below.

Any college football home team (North Carolina) with total of 63.5 to 70.0, averaging 0.75 or less turnovers per game, and committed 1 turnover or less in their previous game, resulted in those games going 26-5 (83.9%) over the total since 2007. The average total in those contests was 66.4, and there were a combined 77.8 points scored per game.


Free NCAAF Pick: Over 67.5
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Army Black Knights vs Buffalo Bulls
Army is off to a 3-0 start, and their triple option rushing attack has been a major reason why. The Cadets had 246 yards or more rushing than each of their first 3 opponents.

Buffalo is coming off a 38-14 loss at Nevada. The Bulls allowed Nevada to gain 352 yards rushing on 64 carries, and that’s an average of 5.5 yards per rushing attempt.

Any college football road team (Army), coming off 3 straight games in which they had 100 yards or more rushing than their opponents, versus a home team (Buffalo) that allowed 5.5 yards per rushing attempt in their previous game, resulted in those road teams going 28-4 ATS (87.5%) since 2007. The road team was favorite by an average of 12.8 points, and they held a sizable +21.9 point per game differential.

Free NCAAF Pick: Army -14.0
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker, one of the best sportsbooks 

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