College Football Week 3 Picks: Teams on Upset Alert This Week

Welcome back for Week 3 of the college football season. Though there will be upsets, they don’t appear as clear as last week that they could win outright. Nonetheless, we take the deep dive attempting to at least beat the spread.

Last week everything went our way and we not only had three spread winners with underdogs but won each contest outright. Not sure we will have the same kind of success the way the schedule sets up this week, however, it won’t be for a lack of effort making college football picks.

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Memphis Tigers

Saturday, September 18, 2021 - 4:00 PM ET at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium

Mississippi State played far better in their second game to move to 2-0, shutting down N.C. State's ability to run and won handily 24-10. The next stop is a trip north to Memphis to take on the 2-0 Tigers. Memphis comes in off a wild shootout at Arkansas State 55-50, with both teams putting up more than 600 yards of offense.

These teams used to meet annually 20 to 30 years ago in a home and home continuing series, however, they have only met twice on the gridiron since 2003.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWVJ6bHxNo0

The Bulldogs continue to transition into Mike Leach’s system, which means a pure passing team and running to keep the opponent honest when the defensive box has five or fewer players.

Memphis could not get off the field last week, permitting 98 plays and 582 yards passing. But that was on the road and the motivation of facing an SEC team not far away will add to their intensity, while Mississippi State has a home game versus rival LSU next.

We would recommend patience to try and secure +3.5 or more betting odds, nonetheless, know that the Tigers are 9-0 ATS at home vs. foe off a SU/ATS win.

College Football Free Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

Charlie Brewer #12 of the University of Utah Utes warms up. Chris Gardner/Getty Images/AFP

Utah Utes vs. San Diego State Aztecs

Saturday, September 18, 2021 - 7:00 PM ET at Dignity Health Sports Park

Utah could not stop the run at BYU and lost to the Cougars for the first time in 10 games. The Utes were pushed around for 231 yards at 5.0 yards a carry. It won’t get any easier vs. San Diego State, which is averaging 260 YPG at 5.3 YPC.

The Utes will attempt to have more bodies near the line of scrimmage to slow the Aztecs down much as they did in the second half at Provo last Saturday. Make no mistake, San Diego State quarterback Jordon Brookshire is not a great passer but having his receivers facing one-on-one coverage, they can win battles that keep drives alive.

The Aztecs, like last week, will get up for a Pac-12 team and they are on a nice 4-1 ATS move as home underdogs, with the Utes just 2-5 ATS after playing BYU.

College Football Free Pick:

Lopini Katoa #4 of the BYU Cougars. Tim Warner/Getty Images/AFP

Arizona State Sun Devils vs. BYU Cougars

Saturday, September 18, 2021 - 10:15 PM ET at LaVell Edwards Stadium     

Arizona State started this season in hot water with the NCAA for off-the-field activities. Not good. We are not certain that has carried over to the players, yet the Sun Devils have played two uninspired first halves against Southern Utah and UNLV and failed to cover either in victory.

BYU lost a great deal of talent from last year’s special squad. Though nobody is calling for another 11-1 season, coach Kalani Sitake has recruited well enough that this squad is playing better than expected.

At this moment, we don’t know where the Sun Devils are a team, facing their first real test. We are more confident in our knowledge of BYU, which is 9-0 ATS as underdogs of six or less off a SU win. When contemplating the sportsbooks' odds, the Cougs should cover in a three-point outcome either way.

College Football Free Pick:

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.