College Football Week 12: Utah Will Cover Nearly Two TDs Against Flightless Ducks

Matthew Jordan

Tuesday, November 15, 2016 7:24 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 15, 2016 7:24 PM UTC

Totally different motivations in Saturday's Pac-12 game as ultra-disappointing Oregon is playing out the string as it visits AP No. 11 Utah, which controls its destiny for the Pac-12 title game. The Utes are -13.5 on college football odds with a total of 70.5.

Ducks Need An Overhaul

Has any school in the nation been more disappointing than Oregon (3-7, 1-6 Pac-12)? Maybe Michigan State of the Big Ten considering the Spartans were in last season's College Football Playoff, but that's likely the extent of the list. From what you hear out of the Pacific Northwest, there's no chance that Oregon head coach Mark Helfrich is back next year even though he led Oregon to the national championship game just two seasons ago. The program is assured of its first losing record since going 5-6 in 2004 under Mike Bellotti. Ducks mega-booster Phil Knight of Nike is reportedly ready to pay anything to get a big-name coach to Eugene this offseason.  Would Chip Kelly return? How about Houston's Tom Herman?

While Oregon's offense has been still fairly solid, it's the defense that has been by far the big problem. The Ducks ranks 127th nationally in allowing 43.5 points per game. Last Saturday, Oregon was crushed in its home finale 52-27 by Stanford, giving the Ducks seven losses for the first time since 1991 and marking their sixth game this season they've allowed 500-plus yards, tied for most in FBS. Oregon had 500 yards itself but turned it over four times. The team also dismissed a rotation player after an early-Sunday arrest in  defensive lineman Austin Maloata. In eight games this year, Maloata recorded 27 tackles, three tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks.

One bright spot from the Stanford loss was running back Royce Freeman topping 100 yards rushing for the 20th time in his career, finishing with 111 yards on 20 carries with one touchdown. It was the 44th rushing TD of his career, moving him into 10th on the Pac-12's all-time list. Oregon also extended the longest current FBS streak in the nation of scoring at least 20 points to 40 straight games.

 Oregon is just 1-8-1 ATS on college football odds and 7-3 O/U.


Utes Eyeing South Title

Utah (8-2, 5-2 Pac-12) was No. 11 in the new AP poll and was No. 15 in the most recent College Football Playoff rankings but should move up a few spots when that  new ranking is released Tuesday night. The Utes will win the Pac-12 South and play either Washington or Washington State in the conference championship game if Utah wins this game and then next week at Colorado. It is possible for Utah to still win the South with a loss this week and a win next, but it would need some help this Saturday. The Utes would win a head-to-head tiebreaker over surging USC.

Coach Kyle Whittingham's team comes off a 49-26 win at Arizona State last Thursday. Utah running back Joe Williams has been a monster since coming out of a short retirement and he rushed for 181 yards and two TDs on 15 carries. Troy Williams threw for 296 yards and four scores. Joe Williams is averaging 216 yards per game with eight rushing touchdowns since his return from that retirement and goes against an Oregon defense allowing up 243 rushing yards per game.

Utah had a whopping 11 sacks (FBS-high this season by any team) and 22 tackles for loss in the ASU win. Defensive lineman Hunter Dimick set a school record with five sacks, which is tied for third-most in NCAA history. His 6.5 tackles for loss were the sixth-most all-time in NCAA history and also a school record.

The Utes are 6-4 ATS on college football picks and 6-4 O/U. Utah won at Oregon 62-20 last season to end a three-game losing  streak in the series.

NCAAF Free Picks: Utah -13.5 & 'Over' 70.5Best Line Offered: Intertops

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