College Football Week 12: No Defense Under Friday Night Lights In Boise Vs. UNLV

Boise St. Broncos Players

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, November 16, 2016 1:53 PM GMT

Our college football betting expert is back in a groove and looking at a Friday night matchup in the Mountain West between UNLV and No. 20 Boise State on the blue turf. Our capper says: expect plenty of points!

2016 College Football Record: 29-28-2 (-1.90 units)

UNLV At Boise State

Alright, alright, alright … back above .500 now after a tough end to October and 7-3 in my last 10 ATS. After picking Boise State to start fast against Hawaii last week and winning easily, I get the Broncos again in their Friday night home game against UNLV. The Rebels come off of a thrilling triple-overtime win over Wyoming -- the same team that tarnished Boise State’s season a few weeks ago. Regardless of this common opponent win by UNLV, the Rebs find themselves listed as 28 to 28.5-point underdogs on college football odds after the line opened at 26.5. The O/U has seen significant line movement as well, rising from 64.5 to 66.5 at BetOnline.

This marks the second time that Boise State has been a 28-point or higher favorite at home this year. The Broncos were favored by that much against both Colorado State and San Jose State on the smurf turf. Boise State didn’t come close to covering that spread in either game, which makes me skittish on the side here -- especially after the travel from Hawaii and a short week with the Friday night game. On the other side, the only situation close to this one for UNLV was its Week 2 game at UCLA as a 27.5-point underdog. UNLV covered, although not convincingly as it lost 42-21.

There are some significant developments since those games that are affecting this line. One would be the injury to UNLV’s leading receiver, Devonte Boyd, who broke his arm against Wyoming. Another would be that this is Senior Night for Boise State and 19 seniors will be playing their last home game. I’m usually not very keen on using motivational factors for handicapping games, but in what the line is calling a blowout anything that keeps the starters in the game longer than usual has to be examined.

The total rising for this game is not surprising after UNLV ran up 653 total yards of offense and 69 points against Wyoming. Also, last year’s game between these two teams had a total of 82 points. UNLV is giving up 36 points on the road, which matches up well with the fact that Boise State has scored 45 or more points in its past two games.

With Boise State not exactly winning behind a strong defense, I like the potential of UNLV to put up a few points in this game, even if it comes in garbage time. A backdoor cover would be a thing to consider when taking Boise State’s side, so I’m going to avoid it. Instead, I’m backing the over total as my Friday night college football pick.

NCAAF Free Pick: 'Over' 66Best Line Offered: Heritage

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