College Football Statistical Handicapping Tips: The 200 Club

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, October 22, 2014 3:36 PM GMT

In this week’s College Football article on statistical handicapping we explore the '200 Club member,' which we are confident will help improve your betting record for future picks.

Offensive balance is a key ingredient to efficiency for College Football teams. When that balance is joined by excellent numbers, we have the cream of the crop of the College Football offensive world, leading to excellent College Football Picks

In the chart below, I use the statistics following eight weeks of play to isolate the most efficient, successful offensive teams on the CFB landscape. As scoring numbers escalate to approximately 28 PPG, it has become necessary to adjust these numbers a bit. In so doing, I have created the current criterion for these 200 Club members:

*31 or more points per game

*200 or more running yards per game

*4.5 or more YPG

*200 or more passing yards per game

*7.0 or more passing yards per attempt

*450 or more total yards

*6.0 or more yards per play

 Using teams with this offensive criterion has led to great success. The following are the numbers for the last 4+ years through October 11, 2014.

“Play any college football team, in any given game, if they run and pass for 200 or more yards while their opponent does not.”

708-225 ATS (75.9%)

The following is the list of the 17 teams who qualify as members of the 200 Club in games to be played the week ending Saturday, October 25, 2014.

 

Teams

PPG

RY

YPR

PY

PYPA

TY

YP Play

Alabama

37

221

5.1

289

9.4

511

6.9

                        Appalachian State                             

34

228

5.7

227

7.0

455

6.3

Arizona

38

200

4.9

358

7.6

557

6.3

Arizona State

39

200

5.2

324

8.3

523

6.7

Auburn

39

262

5.6

226

8.6

488

6.6

Baylor

49

229

4.7

350

8.9

579

6.5

Marshall

47

285

6.8

290

9.0

575

7.8

Michigan State

47

260

5.4

265

8.9

525

6.8

Middle Tennessee State

36

218

4.9

243

8.3

462

6.2

Mississippi State

42

266

5.5

264

9.1

530

6.8

N Illinois

32

260

5.1

216

7.8

476

6.0

Nebraska

41

294

6.1

230

8.1

524

6.8

Ohio State

47

260

5.4

274

9.7

534

7.0

Oregon

44

217

5.3

310

10.4

527

7.4

Texas State

34

232

5.2

228

7.5

460

6.1

Toledo

34

249

6.3

261

7.6

510

6.9

UCLA

35

201

4.5

292

8.6

492

6.3

 

Those following at home will note that the 17 teams listed above went 9-4 ATS last week, with four members (Arizona, Auburn, Mississippi St, and Toledo) having a BYE week. That is not to say it is that easy each week. This 200 Club method of statistical analysis is merely one way in which we can handicap the game with College Football Picks. The Handicapper’s Conundrum, which is situational analysis, must be used for a mental, emotional, and psychological evaluation of a team’s state. Along with technical considerations, and the all-important search for value, such as described in recent articles about the AFP (away from the point spread), an intricate puzzle must be solved in determining the point spread outcome of each game. Then we must watch with anticipation, hoping that our team is on the positive side of the net turnover margins in the game.

In previous weeks, I have examined the Defensive Powerhouses and Defensive Duds of the college football world. After isolating 200 Club members this week, I will complete the statistical landscape by reviewing 2014 CFB Offensive Oafs next week, along with a final summation of statistical handicapping in the world of College Football.