College Football Saturday's Best Bets - O/U Free Picks For Early Games

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Mark Lathrop

Friday, September 16, 2016 1:59 PM GMT

Friday, Sep. 16, 2016 1:59 PM GMT

It's time for some brunch and college football here on the West Coast, and our expert handicapper has a trio of NCAAF picks on totals to go along with your biscuits and gravy. 

Getting a feel for the 2016 season, as I sit 6-4 with no damage done so far. Went after a big hit with Washington State last week as a +335 underdog on the college football odds moneyline as they lost by just 3 points – should of taken the points – but other than that my analysis on each game was sound When you lose an over because of triple-overtime it is best not to beat yourself over it too much.

 

Idaho vs Washington State
Sticking to my guns here as I am a big proponent of Washington State’s ability on offense to score points, and their ability on defense to give up points. Washington State has given up an average of 38 points per game over their first two, a 71.1% completion percentage, and 513 yards of total offense. On the other hand, they have put up 515 yards of total offense on a 78.8% completion rate by the quarterback, Luke Falk.

For Idaho, a local radio announcer here mentioned what the Washington Huskies had to do to win their game against them last week, and his broadcast partner simply stated, 'take the field'. The Vandals complied, giving up 59 points to the Huskies in the game after trailing 35-0 at halftime. That game went over the total of 60 points easily, a week after Idaho failed to go over a total posted at 82.5 at home versus the Montana State Bobcats.

Washington State will turn it on playing against their rival 8 miles away from their campus for the first time in years, so I’m not expecting Mike Leach to let up if they build a big lead. For that reason, I feel comfortable taking Over 69 as one of my Saturday morning College Football picks.

Free College Football Pick: Over 69 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Georgia State vs Wisconsin
This game could get very ugly if Georgia State can’t stop Wisconsin’s backup running back, which is very probable. Senior, Corey Clement, sprained his ankle a bit which will leave running duties mostly to Bradrick Shaw and Taiwan Deal, who averaged 8.2 and 4.8 yards per rush, respectively, against Akron last week in Wisconsin’s 54-10 win. With backups in the game from the get-go, I don’t want to fade the Wisconsin run game as those players will have some motivation to have a good showing. For reference, Georgia State gave up 464 rushing yards to Air Force last week, and Wisconsin put up 294 yards rushing against Akron.

This is a perfect storm of a strength meeting a weakness, and it just boils down to if Wisconsin will let off the gas or not. Yes, their defense will likely keep Georgia State from scoring more than 14 points, but I don’t think Wisconsin will be able to help themselves from scoring more than 40 here. Take Over the relatively low total here at 49.5 points at 5 Dimes as another Saturday morning College Football Pick.

Free College Football Pick: Over 49.5 
Best Line Offered: 
at 5Dimes

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Florida State vs Louisville
In one of the marquee matchups of the weekend, the 2nd ranked Florida State Seminoles travel to Bobby Petrino’s 10th ranked Louisville Cardinals. Both of these teams have some transcendent talent on the offensive side of the ball. Of course, Lamar Jackson is grabbing the headlines with his 610 total yards of offense, by himself, against Syracuse last week. For Florida State, running back Dalvin Cook will be a big factor in this game as he has average 5.1 yards per rushing attempt on the season. A big injury on defense for Florida State in defensive back Derwin James looms large in their ability to stop Jackson and the Louisville offense.

These teams have scored 45, 52, 62, and 70 points each in 4 games combined, and this will be the first test for either with an offense of the same class. I’m picking for a shootout here because that’s what I’d like to see as a fan. Take the Over of 65 at 5Dimes and back two offenses that are putting up averages of over 500 and 700 yards a piece on Saturday morning.

2016 CFB: 6-4 ATS, +1.5 Units

Free College Football Pick: Over 65 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes where you will find a 50% Free Play Bonus

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