College Football Predictions Week 4 - Stanford & Iowa The Most Undervalued Teams

Jay Pryce

Thursday, September 22, 2016 5:43 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 22, 2016 5:43 PM UTC

Here's a look at some undervalued point spreads and totals headed into Week 4 of the 2016-17 college football season. Our expert handicapper provides his analysis.

No. 7 Stanford (-3) vs UCLA
UCLA head coach Jim Mora has struggled to find much offensive mojo against good Pac-12 defenses in his career. He’s 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS versus units allowing less than 20 points on the season. That is what he faces this weekend against a Cardinal defense yielding 11.5 points through three games. Stanford looks to have improved on last season’s third-best scoring defense (24.3) in conference, bolstered by an experienced secondary and run-stuffing line. The unit will give Bruins QB Jacob Rosen all he can handle.

Free College Football Pick: Stanford -3
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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No. 11 Wisconsin at No. 8 Michigan State (-5)         
This game has defensive stalemate written all over it, and both units enter undervalued according to the over-under. Wisconsin has not allowed more than 24 points in its last 10 Big Ten road games—though it has been favored in each—and ranked second in scoring defense last season allowing 11.5 per contest. Redshirt freshman Alex Hornibrook is in line to make his first career start in a Badgers uniform after rallying the team in the second half of last Saturday’s scare to Georgia State; tough spot for his first outing.

Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio admitted he’s been looking ahead to this game for weeks. Sparty trounced Notre Dame 36-28 last time out, and bettors can expect a well-prepared effort in this one. Harassing the frosh under center will be priority number one. The UNDER is 10-3 when Sparty kicks off as single-digit home chalk against Big Ten opponents behind Dantonio’s leadership.

Free College Football Pick: UNDER 43
Best Line Offered: at Heritage, where you will find a 50% Sign Up Cash Bonus

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Iowa (-13) at Rutgers
Joe Public is down on the Hawkeyes after losing 23-21 on a last-second field goal to FCS program North Dakota State. The Hawkeyes are clearly not as good as last year, losing a lot of experience on both sides of the ball. Nevertheless, the Bison are strong, if not stronger, than half the FBS programs out there, including Rutgers.

The Scarlet Knights enter this matchup 2-1 after beating up on FCS Howard in Week 2 and enduring a tough 37-28 win over New Mexico in Albuquerque last Saturday. The program has sustained its fair share of controversies over the last couple of seasons, weakening it’s talent level to no end. The latest hullabaloo is that the administration closed the student tailgate section permanently due to safety concerns, prompting many to sign a petition to boycott future home games. Not the best timing with the Hawkeyes entering town.

Will the potential of less cheering affect the outcome? Maybe, but we already had this one a blowout. The Scarlet Knights are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS when spotting Big Ten visitors more than a touchdown at High Point Solutions Stadium. Kicking off as 15.9-point dogs on average, they are falling to cover the spread by 9.4 points per game. Scoring is the biggest issue, held to 14.8 points per contest. Iowa’s potent defense will likely go lower than this number. The play here is Iowa -12.5 listed at the highly-rated Heritage sportsbook.

Free College Football Pick: Iowa -12.5
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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