A lot is on the line this weekend. There are two college football picks that we believe offer us great value, so come see which plays we like.
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans
These Big Ten rivals didn't meet up this season but will do battle in the conference championship on Saturday. Lucas Oil Stadium will play host to the showdown, with kickoff set for 8:17 PM EST.
We don't need to tell you what's at stake here.
Ohio State is still undefeated at 12-0 (6-5-1 ATS) and will lock up a spot in the national championship game should they beat Michigan State here.
The Buckeyes survived last weekend's crazy game in Ann Arbor, winning 42-41 thanks to failed two-point attempt by Michigan in the dying seconds. Despite winning straight up, Ohio State couldn't cover (-17) for their backers for the third consecutive week.
For Michigan State, they've been on a roll since losing by four at Notre Dame. Over their previous four games, they've beaten Michigan (29-6) and Minnesota (14-3) at home and Nebraska (41-28) and Northwestern (30-6) on the road.
It's a classic battle between offense and defense on Saturday, but why do we think Michigan State is the play in this college football betting spot? It's hard to get past the fact they have the nation's best defense, simple as that.
Having allowed 64.8 rushing yards per game and 172.9 passing yards per game, the Spartans have been impenetrable. It's never easy against Braxton Miller, but we believe Michigan State will keep him from going off, leading to a cover for the underdogs.
College Football Pick: Michigan State Spartans +6
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The Longhorns are 14.5-point underdogs for this road game against Baylor, who will be looking to right the ship after a couple shaky performances in a row
Last week the Bears barely escaped with a 41-38 win at TCU, that coming a week after a dreadful 49-17 road loss to Oklahoma State. Needless to say, Baylor didn't cover in either game.
But now the Bears return home, where they've been downright dominant all season long. In their past four home matchups they've beaten Texas Tech (63-34), Oklahoma (41-12), Iowa State (71-7) and West Virginia (73-42). Yes, those are all correct scores.
As you can see, it's going to take near impeccable execution (and probably some luck) for Texas to hang around with these explosive Bears.
The Longhorns do have a little momentum on their side. They had two weeks off after a 25-point loss to Oklahoma State and used that extra time well – they went out and crushed Texas Tech 41-16 last weekend to easily cover as six-point favorites.
While the weather isn't expected to cooperate this weekend, it's going to take a little more than some rain to slow down the Bears. Their explosive offense, which ranks first in the country by averaging a ridiculous 635.1 yards per game, is why they're going to be our recommended college football pick for Saturday.
Texas has certainly improved since a shaky start to their season, but we just don't see them keeping up offensively with Baylor here. Lay the chalk and back the Bears.
College Football Pick: Baylor Bears -14.5