College Football Picks: Week 5 Potential NCAAF Upsets

Ross Benjamin

Friday, September 27, 2013 7:29 PM GMT

Friday, Sep. 27, 2013 7:29 PM GMT

Here are the betting lines for a couple big underdog college football picks. Let's review two gems that have a chance at providing us big upset money!

Saturday College Football Upsets

South Carolina @ Central Florida 12:00 PM ET

Game# 173-174

The Central Florida Golden Knights get the rare opportunity to host a SEC opponent on Saturday as they take on the South Carolina Gamecocks. Kickoff is slated for Noon ET and the game will be televised by ABC. According to current college football betting odds South Carolina is a 7.5-point favorite. My football betting odds service shows that 61% of public money has been wagered on the road favorite thus far with very little-if-any line movement taking place.

Golden Knights with Golden Chance

Whenever I isolate a live underdog with value I always believe they have a realistic chance of winning the game outright. I truly believe that to be the case in this contest with Central Florida. The Golden Knights have looked terrific in getting off to a 3-0 start and they look to be primed for the stiff challenge ahead on Saturday.

UCF enters this contest off a week of rest following an impressive road win 34-31 at Penn St. as a 4.5-point underdog. Central Florida never trailed in the game and except for a few anxious moments in the final couple of minutes was firmly in control for the better part of the day. Junior quarterback Blake Bortles was terrific going 20-27 for 281 yards and 3 touchdowns. Storm Johnson led the rushing attack by gaining 117 yards on 17 carries while accounting for 2 touchdowns. The UCF offense amassed 507 yards versus a pretty good Nittany Lions defense.

Danger Zone for the Cocks

South Carolina comes off a 35-25 home win versus Vanderbilt failing to cover as a 10.5-point favorite. The Gamecocks backers were dismayed after their team blew a 28-0 lead and allowed the Commodores to get inside the number with a furious rally. South Carolina outgained Vanderbilt 579-268 and led in time of possession by a wide margin of 37:10 to 22:50. However, 3 crucial turnovers enabled the Commodores to slowly climb their way back into the game.

This is a very dangerous spot for the road favorite. They come off consecutive conference games while having another conference opponent on deck. Sandwiched between it all is a non-conference road game versus a quality football team looking to climb up the college football ladder.

Free Pick: Central Florida +7.5 over South Carolina for your upset college football picks.


Oklahoma @ Notre Dame

Game# 155-156

Oklahoma makes its first trip to South Bend, Indiana since 10/2/1999 when they were defeated by “The Irish” 34-10 and failed to cover as a 6.0-point underdog. The Sooners will also be out to atone for last season’s 30-13 upset home loss at the hands of a Notre Dame team which was an 11.5-point underdog. According to current football betting odds the Sooners are a 3.5-point road favorite. My football odds betting service shows 71% of public money has been wagered on the road favorite thus far.

Home Underdog in the Golden Dome

Notre Dame enters this contest as an underdog while riding an 11-game home win streak. This will be the first time since 11/13/2010 that Notre Dame is a home underdog. On that particular occasion they dismantled Utah 28-3 as a 6.0-point dog. “The Irish” rebounded nicely after having their 17-game regular season win streak snapped at Michigan 41-30 on 9/7. They have knocked off both Purdue and Michigan St. in the last 2 weeks to improve to 3-1 on the season. This is a team that’s 23-2 in their last 25 regular season games and one that has home underdog value written all over it.

Paper Tiger

When you first glanced at the Sooners schedule and saw the first 3-games of the season it looked to be anything but a cakewalk. However now that the month of September nears to a close we now know that UL-Monroe, West Virginia, and Tulsa look to be less than average teams in 2013. The defense has played extremely well to start the season. However, all three opponents they’ve faced have struggled mightily and vastly underachieved in the early part of the year.

My Angle 

Any non-conference home underdog of 5.0 (Notre Dame) or less playing in game 4 of the season or beyond while coming off back-to-back straight up wins, and they’re facing an opponent that scored 40-points or more in their previous game is 15-4 ATS since the start of the 1981 season.

Free Pick: Notre Dame +3.5 over Oklahoma


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