College Football Picks Week 4 - Florida State vs. South Florida Bulls

Marlon Mack Scores a TD

Saturday, September 24, 2016 1:55 PM GMT

For Saturday's early game between Florida & South Florida, our capper has found a very interesting and profitable angle. Go inside this article and get the expert College Football Pick. 

Last year Florida State dominated South Florida winning 34-14 at home and they have been made the small road favorite today. Surprisingly though odds makers have set the Seminoles at less than a touchdown of a favorite despite the fact they were ranked as one of the best teams coming into the season. Can South Florida pull off the upset and add to Florida State's woes?

 

Florida State Seminoles
Florida State outgained USF 441 to 274 in total yards last season while holding USF to just 11 first downs compared to their 21. After getting absolutely shellacked by Louisville last week this would seem like a good spot for Florida State to come back and establish themselves as one of the best programs in the country. However, I think that is easier said than done against a South Florida team that is not only good but will get a shot to take on Florida State at home. Along with starting a freshman quarterback who has been inconsistent Florida State's offensive line has really struggled as they are currently ranked 103rd in the nation in sacks allowed per pass attempt. In their defense they have faced two really good defenses up front in Mississippi and Louisville and South Florida will be just a step below those two. Still, this could be the difference today and puts some value in backing what will be a fired up USF squad.

 

South Florida Bulls
South Florida beat Syracuse last week 45-20 while getting outgained by the Orangemen 549 to 454 in total yards. Looking at the yardage it seems like Syracuse should of won the game but the Bulls were able to take advantage of a couple turnovers by Syracuse. What should encourage South Florida today is that both their returning quarterback and running back are two of the best in the American Conference in Quentin Flowers who has thrown seven touchdowns to just one interception and running back Marlon Mack who is averaging 9.6 yards per carry. They have some good skill position guys alongside them but up front they will have to defend against a Florida State defense that is good and looking to bounce back from last week. Defensively South Florida has a lot of guys back on defense which should be a huge difference. Last season they ranked 13th in tackles for a loss and 14th in interceptions. Expect for them to get a couple turnovers today and keep this game close.

 

NCAA football odds
Oddsmakers have made South Florida a +5.5 underdog . This is a very interesting number considering that Florida State was just ranked second in the country last week and South Florida is not only a smaller school but play in a weaker conference. As well, USF has not beaten Florida State since 2009. For my NCAA football pick though I think the odds makers are on top of this so I will take the points with the Bulls to keep this game very close and possibly pull the shocker.

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NCAA football record: 5-4

 

Free College Football: South Florida +7
Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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