College Football Picks: Weather Conditions Impact When Betting Totals

David Lawrence

Sunday, December 6, 2015 4:06 PM GMT

Sunday, Dec. 6, 2015 4:06 PM GMT

When handicapping college football, it’s important to factor in the weather for each respective game. Let’s take a look and see how it affects the betting lines.

Clear Skies
This might seem obvious but when you see clear skies, that’s the ideal situation for a higher-scoring affair. It doesn’t necessarily mean that a game will go over the college football odds but that is the ideal condition for it. An even better situation is if the game is played indoors in a dome because then wind doesn’t even come into play. Wind is a huge deterrent for overs, so if you’re betting a game going over the number, the ideal setting is either mild conditions outdoors when there is no wind (or minimal) or indoors in a dome.

 

Rain
Rain tends to be the messiest situation for football teams these days. With snow, crews do a good job of getting the field clean in between series and quarters. However, with rain, we don’t really have a tenable solution for it. Wet conditions tend to lead to plenty of dropped balls as things get slippery. As far as running goes, it also becomes harder to find that traction to push off for more explosion, which makes it harder for receivers to separate on routes. And if the rain is pouring heavy then it’s difficult for teams put the ball in the air. As a result, passing games tend to get back-seated in heavy rain and teams – in general – become more conservative when the conditions are slick.

Must Read: Week 1 Odds Released But are They Worth the Gamble?

Snow
Snow can sometimes be a misnomer. As soon as we see a few flakes, bettors start piling college football picks on the under. However, the crews have become very efficient these days in terms of clearing the field and making it playable. Obviously, it’s not the ideal condition for a high-scoring game but remember that when there’s snow on the ground, the total is going to be much lower than in a domed game with perfect conditions. That means you’ll need less points to go over.

When it’s snowing, you’ll want to double-check the forecast and see how much snow is expected. Is it expected to snow heavily throughout the game? Is it just a couple of inches or is it going to be a blizzard? Will it be blowing snow or will the wind be mild? If it’s light snow and no wind, then don’t get scared off by the conditions. If it’s heavy snow and gusty winds, that’s more likely to lead to an under with teams getting conservative.

 

Does One Team Benefit More Than The Other?
One important thing to factor is the two teams that are playing in the game. Remember, college football involves teams across the country. If you have a matchup in a New Year’s Day bowl that’s being played in a snowy climate and one of the teams is from Texas, that could be an advantage to the other team as Texas teams don’t often see snow. Or if a Big Ten team is playing in Arizona early in the season. Big Ten teams are used to milder summers and they could cramp up in the sweltering head in a spot like Arizona. Always factor the two teams and where they come from as the weather could impact one team more heavily than the other.

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