College Football Picks: Wager on Toledo to Easily Cover Low Spread vs. UMass

Joe Catalano

Thursday, October 22, 2015 2:30 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 22, 2015 2:30 PM UTC

The Toledo Rockets get another easy matchup against Massachusetts. Is Toledo up for another beating or will UMass use motivation and attempt to pull off the upset? Check our free pick inside.


Kickoff is scheduled for Saturday, October 24th at 3:30 p.m. EST at Gillette Stadium in Foborough, Massachusetts. According to 5Dimes, Toledo is a 14 point betting favorite and the total is 62.5 points. Can the Minutemen have some of the New England Patriots magic rub off on them because they'll need it? This game can also be seen on ESPN 3.

The Rockets have been a successful betting favorite at 5-0-1 against the spread.
Massachusetts doesn't lack offense, but Toledo possesses a stingy defense. A defense which allows a mere 13.2 points per game. This is what got them going at the beginning of the season when they held a ranked Arkansas Razorbacks team in check and defeated Arkansas, 16-12.


Best Offensive Output Of the Season
Rockets quarterback, Phillip Ely has had a very successful season thus far and he's hitting his stride at the right time. Ely is coming off of an 18 for 27 performance for 327 yards and 4 touchdowns. He's not a quarterback that will make many mistakes as he only has 4 picks on the season to go along with 10 touchdown passes. Two of Ely's main targets in Cody Thompson (374 yards, 2 TD) and Corey Jones (283 yards, 3 TD) are coming off of some big performances. Each receiver has caught a touchdown pass in each of their last 2 games.

Toledo is also well balanced as they get a lot of production out of their running game. Terry Swanson averaged nearly 100 yards per game and also averages a hefty 7.9 yards per carry and Damian Jones-Moore has 326 yards and 5 TD's on the season. Massachusetts will have their hands full as Toledo's top 4 running backs all average 5 yards per carry or more. If you combine the production on offense with Toledo's top-notch defense, this is almost an impossible team to compete against, especially at this level.


Not Good Enough
The Minutemen offense is an offense that can be competitive at times. They put up 27 points against Notre Dame and lost 25-23 against a very tough Temple Owls team, but the bottom line is wins and Umass has only been victorious once this season.

Umass has a heavy duty passing game as they've almost amassed 2000 yards passing in 6 games and average less than 100 yards per game rushing. The combination of quarterback Blake Frohnapfel to wide receiver, Tajae Sharpe has been an unstoppable.

Sharpe already has 738 yards with 2 TD's for the season. Frohnapfel has also connected with Rodney Mills frequently as Mills has 196 yards in his last 2 games and that's 2/3 of his seasonal production.

Expect Umass to try to pass on the Toledo defense and I don't expect the Minutemen to be as successful in the past as they've been in the last couple of games. This is a poor matchup for Umass and the spread is quite low. Look for Toledo to get their 7th win of the season quite easily this weekend. Against the college football odds we are backing Toledo as the college football pick.

College Football Pick: Toledo -14 at Pinnacle

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