Week 11 Line Moves: Vandy Jumps to +17 vs. Mizzou

Jason Lake

Thursday, November 8, 2018 9:39 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 8, 2018 9:39 PM UTC

What will it take to get you to put the Vanderbilt Commodores in your Week 11 college football picks? How about 17 points against the Missouri Tigers this Saturday?

Jason’s 2018-19 NCAAF picks record Week 10: 12-12 ATS; 0-1 ML (minus-1.00 units), 0-2 Totals

Vanderbilt (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS) at Missouri (5-4 SU and ATS)Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, Columbia (SECN)Free NCAAF Pick: Commodores ATSBest Line Offered: 5Dimes

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Are you ready for some SEC football?! After briefly ceding the throne to the Big Ten last year, the Southeastern Conference is back on top of the rankings at Sports Reference – and it’s not even close. So who do we have on tap this week? Oh, it’s the Vanderbilt Commodores visiting the Missouri Tigers. Excitement!

Okay, these aren’t the hottest commodities in the SEC. But now that the college football odds have moved in Missouri’s direction, we’re happy to recommend the Commodores at their low, low price of +17, down from +14 when the lines first opened. That’s two magic numbers in play right there. Midnight Magic, you might say.

Sail On

Making college football picks isn’t an exact science, but it’s always easier when you’re scooping up these line moves late in the week. ESPN’s Football Power Index has the Tigers projected to win this game 84.2 percent of the time; that’s Missouri –533 via the thumpin’ SBR Odds Converter, and somewhere between Missouri –14 and Missouri –14.5 according to Wizard of Odds. Presto: profit margin.

Before we get too carried away, let’s look at the consensus report for this game. The ‘Dores are pulling in 62 percent of bettors at press time, which suggests the big money must be on Mizzou to make these lines move so much. Which side are the sharps on? Switching the odds board to the Classic View, clicking that blue “i” button and choosing Consensus reveals all: Early bettors were 61/39 on Vandy. Big money is not always sharp money.

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Depth Chart vs. Missouri#AnchorDown | #RTI pic.twitter.com/MUuN5K41FT

— Vanderbilt Football (@VandyFootball) November 6, 2018
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Gettin’ It

So what’s the deal with Vanderbilt? Our crack staff is looking for some kind of sign that they’re on the ropes, maybe a key injury or some other storyline to explain this line move. Nothing seems to be coming up on the newswires. The ‘Dores even have the rest advantage after taking Week 10 off. Hmmph. Maybe it’s just some deep-pocketed Mizzou fans supporting their favorite team.

The Tigers did pull off a big upset last week, beating the Florida Gators 38-17 as 6.5-point road dogs. Vanderbilt are No. 60 on the F/+ Combined Ratings at Football Outsiders, well below No. 14 Missouri and No. 26 Florida, and they lost 37-27 to the Gators (–9.5 away) in Week 7. But we’re not too worried about the transitive property here, not when we’re getting all these points – and not when Missouri are minus-0.77 Points Above Expectation at Faurot Field, according to last year’s figures from ESPN’s Brad Edwards and Seth Walder. Somehow I know, deep in my heart, you needed V.

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