College Football Picks: Valuable Homedog Play in UNLV vs. San Jose State

David Lawrence

Tuesday, October 6, 2015 1:54 PM GMT

The San Jose State Spartans played the Auburn Tigers competitively last weekend and UNLV was off. Where do these two teams stand and who's the best college football pick?

Momentum
The Spartans might have momentum, and they might not – it’s really up to them to decide how they move forward after the past weekend. The simple details are these: The Spartans were down only one score to Auburn early in the fourth quarter on the road in Jordan-Hare Stadium. Given that Auburn was met with a lot of preseason praise, one could say that San Jose State should be really pleased to be that competitive for that long in an SEC stadium against a team which was playing for the national title at the end of the 2013 season. The Spartans might have played the kind of game which will enable them to become a lot more confident. On the other hand, with the way Auburn has stumbled out of the gate this season and looked like a fairly bad team, one which will struggle to make a bowl game (barring significant and quick improvement), it could very well be the case that San Jose State losing by 14 to Auburn really isn’t much of an achievement after all. Which way you think about this result for San Jose State will probably affect your betting decision on this game, as well as a detail about UNLV’s injury situation, as you’ll see below.

 

Line Moves
The college football odds for this game took a while to open because there are quarterback injuries on both sides. With UNLV’s starting signal caller is questionable, we’ve seen San Jose State go from a PICK at open up to -2.

 

Notable Injuries
San Jose State has running back Thomas Tucker listed as questionable for this game with an ankle injury. Quarterback Kenny Potter is questionable with an ankle injury as well.

UNLV starting quarterback Blake Decker is questionable for this game with a shoulder injury. Cornerback Fred Wilson is questionable for this game with an ankle injury. Fullback Marc Philippi is out indefinitely with a foot injury.

 

Handicapping The Game
The trick here is to discern how this game is going to break, based on the injury situations for both teams. Let’s say Blake Decker can play for UNLV at quarterback. UNLV just did beat Nevada on the road. Nevada is not a particularly strong team, but winning on the Wolf Pack’s home turf should give the Runnin’ Rebels a big boost. If Decker plays, take the Rebels. If Decker doesn’t play, UNLV might lack the offensive consistency needed to prevail. San Jose State scoring 21 at Auburn might point to the idea that the Spartans would have enough production to win this game in Decker’s absence.

We’ll make the call that Decker is going to play, and that UNLV will win. Since we’re now getting points at home, take UNLV with your college football picks.

College Football Pick: UNLV +2 at Bookmaker

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