College Football Picks: Valuable ATS Plays Found in Saturday Night's Card

David Lawrence

Friday, October 2, 2015 1:20 PM GMT

Conference games in the SEC & Pac-12 are going to draw a lot of interest from fans. What about from bettors? Here are 3 games on Saturday night’s card that can be the right betting play.

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Odds:
Texas A&M -6.5
This is a game in which both teams are coming off sluggish offensive performances. Neither Mississippi State nor Texas A&M played well or consistently on offense last weekend. Mississippi State won because Auburn’s offense was horrible. Texas A&M won because of some clutch playmaking, but also because Arkansas got nervous and made some late mistakes, especially on defense. With both teams playing at roughly the same level on offense, what can we expect from each defense? Given how bad Auburn’s offense has become – with freshman Sean White replacing Jeremy Johnson for the Mississippi State game – the Bulldogs might be hurt in this matchup with A&M. Playing an offense with such a low skill level, at least at quarterback, could leave Mississippi State unprepared for A&M and quarterback Kyle Allen, who showed promise in a recent win over Nevada, when A&M’s offense scored over 40 points. Texas A&M has a lot of speed on the outside, and that could be the kind of trait which will leave MSU’s defense a step behind and generally less responsive. Mississippi State’s offense is nothing close to what it was a year ago. A&M, under new defensive coordinator John Chavis, should have a much better chance of containing MSU’s offense than MSU will of containing A&M’s offense. Take the Aggies here and expect them to cover the spread.

College Football Pick:  Texas A&M -6.5

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Arizona State Sun Devils vs. UCLA Bruins
Odds:
UCLA -13.5
The key point to make here is that UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen, who had struggled earlier in the season in a one-point win over BYU, really cleaned up his act this past weekend in a blowout win at Arizona. Many facets of UCLA’s team worked well, but Rosen had not been part of the fun against BYU. He joined the party against Arizona, and with him playing up to the team’s expectations, UCLA becomes a next-level ballclub. Rosen was efficient, confident, and consistently productive against Arizona. If he’s anywhere close to being that kind of player against Arizona State, it’s hard to see how the Sun Devils have a realistic chance. Arizona State’s offense has been horrible this season. The Sun Devils have yet to play a generally good game in 2015 so it’s hard to trust them for our College Football Picks. UCLA should cover the spread, based on everything you’ve seen from these teams this year.

College Football Pick: UCLA -13.5

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Ole Miss Rebels vs. Florida Gators
Odds:
Ole Miss -7.5
It’s true that Florida has won consecutive SEC games, but the Gators were winning in the SEC East against opponents which have struggled, Kentucky and Tennessee. Ole Miss is a far better team than anyone in the SEC East other than Georgia. The Rebels have strong defensive linemen and powerful wide receivers. Florida does not have the same kinds of athletes at any position on the field. Take Ole Miss to cover the College Football Odds.

College Football Pick: Ole Miss -7.5

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