College Football Picks: Use Boise State's Overconfidence to Your Advantage and Bet Hawaii +24

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, September 29, 2015 3:19 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 29, 2015 3:19 PM UTC

Boise State hosts Hawaii with each team kicking off their Mountain Conference season.  How will the Broncos fare and where is the value on laying a college football pick here?

Hawaii at Boise St. (-24-) 3:30 ET
Hawaii visits Boise St. in this Mountain West Conference opener for each team.  Following last week’s divergent results, it will be most difficult for anyone to back the Rainbow Warriors.  Certainly, Boise St. will not be scared.  The most recent time these two teams met, Boise cruised to a 49-14 victory in the Islands in November 2012.  With a low level of interest for Boise St. and a difficult travel schedule for Hawaii, it puts this game low on the list of priorities for big dog backers.  Considering the Boise schedule, it is an ideal spot to combine a Boise St. letdown with a Boise St. look-ahead, making Hawaii your college football pick.

Fourth year Hawaii HC, Chow, completely revamped his coaching staff in effort to turn around the fortunes of a Rainbow Warrior team that has gone 8-29 SU in his first 3 years at the helm.  There is hope, considering that Hawaii has beaten Colorado and Cal-Davis in their 2 home contests.  But, the road slate has been brutal.  Consider the frequent flyer miles being built up by the Rainbow Warriors.  On September 12th, Hawaii traveled 4,500 miles and 6 time zones east to get crushed by Ohio St. (38-0).  After returning to the Islands for their victory over Cal-Davis, Hawaii boarded a plane last week to again travel over 4,000 miles and 5 time zones for a 28-0 loss to Wisconsin.  In that contest, Hawaii was out-yarded 512-255, including a 326-15 overland yardage edge by the Badgers.  After returning to Hawaii, the team must again fly to the mainland where they will face Boise St. this Saturday as 24 point underdog.  That is over 20,000 miles in the air in the last 3 weeks by the time this game kicks off!  At the least, Hawaii players will certainly not be threatened by this level of competition.  Considering the level of opposition, the fact that Hawaii has allowed just 28 PPG and 414 YPG is a solid accomplishment.  Here, they will catch an over-confident Boise team in a prime sandwich spot.

Two weeks ago, Boise destroyed Idaho St. (54-0) in rebounding from their loss to BYU.  Last week, Boise traveled to Virginia, where they again were dominant in a Friday night win by a count of 56-14.  Admittedly, they outgained UVA 447-273.  But, it was a (+5) net TO margin that sealed the deal for the Broncos in that one.  In other words, the win came much more easily than the stats reflected.  Today, they return for a low priority game against a Hawaii team for whom they will have little respect.  Next week, it is back on the highway again for a visit to Colorado St., one of their prime competitors for MWC superiority.   Second year Boise HC Harsin is highly respected by this bureau.  After success at Arkansas St., Harsin led the Broncos to a 38-30 Bowl win vs. Arizona.  But, this is clearly a downer spot for his Broncos from whom Harsin figures to ask little.  Must note that it may also be true of 1st year QB Rypien who, after big performances in a fill-in role vs. Idaho St. and UVA, may be in for a breather himself! 

In any event, the contrary nature of this selection adds to the sandwich scenario making this a college football odds on play with Hawaii.

College Football Pick: Hawaii +24 (-105) at Bookmaker

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