Last Call: Grab Some Trojans for Late-Night Cal Visit

southern cal USC

Jason Lake

Wednesday, November 7, 2018 8:07 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 7, 2018 8:07 PM UTC

It’s always a party when the USC Trojans face the California Golden Bears. And it looks like USC have the betting value for your Week 11 college football picks.



Jason’s 2018-19 NCAAF picks record: 12-12 ATS; 0-1 ML (minus-1.00 units), 0-2 Totals

California (5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) at Southern Cal (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATSSaturday, 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)Free NCAAF Pick: Trojans ATSBest Line Offered: Pinnacle

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Welcome to the Pacific Time Zone, folks. This is a wonderful world where people live in peace and harmony, surrounded by clean air, artisanal coffee and legal weed. You can even play poker here. There’s just one problem: the three-hour difference between Pacific Time and the major media markets in the Eastern Time Zone. Okay, that and earthquakes. Those are a problem.

It’s worth it. Thanks to “East Coast Bias,” you can usually find some good betting value for your Pac-12 college football picks, and Saturday’s game between the USC Trojans and the California Golden Bears seems to fit the bill. It should be a fun and entertaining game, too – definitely worth staying up for if you’re living on Eastern Time.

Rubber Soul

The Trojans aren’t normally the kind of team that generates much betting value. However, this particular game is an exception. Our heroes opened as 5-point home faves, but ESPN’s Football Power Index has USC winning 69 percent of the time – nice – which works out to a vig-free moneyline of USC –223 using the far-out SBR Odds Converter. That’s about the same as a 7-point spread according to Wizard of Odds.

The sharp money appears to be on the Trojans, too. The consensus reports at press time show a 54-percent lean towards Cal, but USC have also moved from –5 to –5.5 at most locations on the college football odds board. If we’re reading the tealeaves correctly, that means more money has been put on the Trojans than the Bears. Follow the money, as they say.

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Cameron Smith was all over the field for USC last nighthttps://t.co/H1L9C5F0MW pic.twitter.com/Ub65qCJybX

— PFF College (@PFF_College) 22 de setembro de 2018
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SoCal Uncensored

It’s been a disappointing season for the Trojans, who were ranked No. 15 on the AP poll heading into their third year under head coach Clay Helton. They’ve tumbled all the way down to No. 50 on the F/+ Combined Ratings at Football Outsiders. But they’re still doing better than Cal at No. 59. The Bears are rebuilding in Year Two under Justin Wilcox, and their winning record masks the fact that they’ve played one of the weakest schedules in the conference.

This is also one of those rivalry games where the home team usually gets the job done. The Trojans have won each of their last five meetings at the Coliseum, going 3-2 ATS along the way. And they just got LB Cameron Smith back in the lineup after a three-game absence (at 1-2 SU and ATS); he helped USC beat Oregon State 38-21 last week as 15-point road faves. We’ll buy that for a Cascadian dollar.

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