College Football Picks: USC Gets the Call as 10-Point Chalk Against PAC-12 Rival Stanford

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, September 17, 2015 7:52 PM GMT

We’re going to examine Saturday’s college football nationally televised game between Stanford and USC. Take the time to read this insightful betting preview article before making a free pick.

Cardinal and Trojans in PAC-12 Opener
USC will host Stanford on Saturday in what will be the PAC-12 opener for both teams. The opening kickoff at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum is slated for 8:00 PM ET, and the game will be aired nationally by ABC. According to current (9/17) College Football Betting Odds, USC is a 10.0 point favorite across the board. The posted total on this contest is 50.0, and a lone exception being TheGreek.com who has it at 50.5. USC has won and covered the last two games in their head-to-head series against Stanford. On each occasion they did so as exactly a 3.0 point underdog.

Cardinals look for Atonement
Stanford won’t only being playing with double revenge on Saturday they’ll also be looking to atone for a relatively disappointing start to the season. A win over #6 ranked USC will help ease the pain from a season opening lackluster performance during a 16-6 defeat at Northwestern. It was one of the rare times in head coach David Shaw’s tenure at Stanford that his team was physically dominated. They were able to bounce back last Saturday in a 31-7 home win over Central Florida. However, that result will be of little consequence, and quickly forgotten without a strong showing against USC. A real area of concern thus far for Stanford has been an ineffective running game. They’ve rushed for just a combined 215 yards thus far, and averaged a less than stellar 3.2 yards per carry. That truly lends itself to a lack of physicality at the point of attack which has been otherwise a Stanford trademark in recent years. On a positive note, the Cardinal defense is allowing just 11.5 points and 255.5 yards per game.

 

Domination personified for Trojans
Granted USC has opened the season against Arkansas State and Idaho. It’s safe to say that neither of those opponents will be mistaken for a PAC-12 team anytime soon. Despite the inferior opposition, USC outscored those teams by a cumulative score of 110-15, and outgained their opponents by a combined 534 yards. The Trojans have also not committed any turnovers, and forced 4 by the opposition thus far.

 

College Football Betting Angle
As I alluded to earlier, Stanford is averaging just 3.2 yards per rushing attempt.

USC is allowing 3.4 yards per rushing attempt.

Since the start of the 2011 college football season, any team (USC) playing in a conference game that allows 3.0 to 3.5 yards per rushing attempt, versus an opponent (Stanford) which averages 3.0 to 3.5 yards per rushing attempt, resulted in that team going 46-14 ATS (76.7%). That team was an average 10.0 point favorite in those 60 contests, and had a +16.3 point per game differential. Play on USC -10.0 as one of my College Football Picks on Saturday.

College Football Pick: USC -10

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Not Convinced? Check Out Another Cappers Note on this Matchup