College Football Picks: Upset Alert for LA Tech so Back LA Lafayette +18

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, September 30, 2015 6:36 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 30, 2015 6:36 PM UTC

LA Lafayette and LA Tech meet in this Bayou matchup. Check our college football pick, do we smell an upset here?

LA Lafayette vs. LA Tech (-18) 7:00 ET
LA Lafayette and LA Tech meet in this Bayou matchup. Last year,Tech won this matchup 48-20 on September 6th of last season. They did so as a 15-point underdog, outgaining the Cajuns 533-415, profiting from a (+3) net TO margin. Check out the line today folks … and you will see a 33 point line swing between these 2 teams. That is a lot of value for a rivalry revenge big dog. And, one we simply cannot ignore. 

Under 3rd year HC Holtz, the Bulldog program has returned to its winning ways. Last year, Tech was 9-5 SU, 11-2 ATS collecting the money like clockwork for their backers. Keep in mind, however, those 2 ATS losses each came in the role of double digit favorite, when they won only 27-20 as 12 point home chalk vs. UTSA and lost 30-27 as 13 point road chalk at ODU. That is a microcosm of the fact that in his coaching stints at 3 different programs, E.Carolina, S. Florida and LA Tech, that Skip Holtz has built a dichotomous record in his mark as favorite and underdog.  This year, LA Tech is a mediocre 2-2 SU with wins over Southern (as -40) and again failing to cover as a double digit home favorite vs. Florida Int’l last week (by the way, Holtz covered in his only dog role losing 39-33 in OT at Kansas State as +10). Last week’s win, no cover, was common for Holtz, as he played conservatively with the lead, despite 200 club offensive numbers and a 246-45 overland edge. Expected to contend for CUSA superiority, the Bulldogs are outscoring opponents 40-28 and outgaining them 522-388. Those numbers mean little when taking into account the coaching profile of Holtz. 

The LA Lafayette revival has been apparent under 5th year HC Mark Hudspeth, who has recorded 4 consecutive 9-4 SU seasons, including a 4-0 SU record in Bowl games (implying he gets his teams prepared for important games). Those conference games will follow. But, today there is one very important revenge outing that must take place. Our LTS followers cashed with a 4% play against the Cajuns last week. Part of the reasoning, beside the FIU great defense, was the ULL look ahead to this contest. It resulted in a 35-14 home loss to Akron, in which the Cajuns were outgained 458-285 and had a (-3) net TO margin. 

Now, it’s time for big dog payback off a loss. With extraordinary value, we lineup with LA Lafayette as our college football pick as big dog of the week with an incredible 33 point swing from last year, putting the college football odds clearly in our favor. Upset no surprise to this bureau!  

College Football Pick: LA Lafayette +18 at Heritage

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