College Football Picks: UNLV vs. New Mexico

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, September 26, 2013 2:37 PM GMT

The UNLV Runnin' Rebels go on the road to battle with the New Mexico Lobos in the Mountain West Conference opener for both teams.

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According to the college football betting odds, UNLV opened as a 2.0-point road favorite, and despite 58% of public money being wagered on the home underdog so far, this number has moved to 2.5. When these two teams met a season ago UNLV walked away with an easy 35-7 win as a 2.0-point home favorite.

Break Up the Rebels 

The UNLV Rebels have won 2-games in a row versus Central Michigan and Western Illinois. That in itself is a significant feat for the Rebels football program. The fact of the matter is UNLV hasn’t won 2 games in a row since the 2008 season when they won consecutive contests versus New Mexico and Wyoming. The next major obstacle is winning on the road. They’ve been absolutely brutal in that role. The Rebels enter Saturday on a 23-game road losing streak. Even more depressing for UNLV fans is that their team has gone an abysmal 3-49 in their last 52 road games including a horrible 10-42 ATS in those contests. 

Lobos Have to Learn How to Win 

New Mexico has had problems of their own in recent years. The Lobos have gone a horrible 8-47 in their last 55 games overall. They started the year with 2-games on the road and Lobos fans can be encouraged by their 1-1 start heading into the home opener on Saturday. In their opening game of the 2013 season they won as a 7.0-point underdog at UTEP 42-35. Last week they were beaten 49-27 at Pittsburgh and pushed as a 22.0-point dog. 

Final Analysis 

The old adage of don’t expect bad teams to do good things for you really applies here to both teams. Although both of these programs are off to encouraging starts to the season, they come with a lot of baggage. One team has a monster road losing streak but somehow is the away favorite in this contest. The other has lost 47 of their last 55 games and is less than a field goal underdog. Something has to give because there are no ties in college football.

Be sure to check my picks on the Oklahoma State vs. West Virginia Game~

 

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When all else fails then I just trust my 4D handicapping software to give me the best edge. Here’s what it spit back out to me. Any road favorite of 4.5 or less that comes off back-to-back home favorite ATS wins, versus an opponent that comes off a loss by 11-points or more is 10-2 SU&ATS since the start of the 1980 season. That’s more than good enough for me and my NCAA Football Picks. I will stick my neck out and use the road favorite in this spot.

Free Pick: UNLV -2.5 over New Mexico at William Hill