College Football Picks for Underdog Play of the Day

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, October 17, 2014 2:13 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 17, 2014 2:13 PM UTC

This week our expert handicapper and SBR contributor attempts going for his 8 consecutive winning underdog college football pick for his pointspread prognosis.

In what is a knee-jerk selection to some, we put our 7-0 ATS UNDERDOG record on the line this season.  This mark includes 4 double digit dog winners, as well as Louisville last week, who never trailed to the college football odds pointspread and romped home as a 6% LTS winner, running the record of those vaunted Top of the Ticket games to 35-4 ATS (90%).  Now, we come with another quality UNDERDOG in a solid situation.

Many of my followers have queried as to what the parameters are that I use to isolate these UNDERDOGS.  Without going into specific detail, it is important to note that we first look at the defensive side of the ball.  Checking out my list of Defensive Powerhouse  of which today’s selection is a part is a primary consideration.  Next, we look at the situation surrounding the game, considering such factors as momentum, current form, rest, revenge, and coaching.  And, of course, the heart and soul of any selection is the fundamental matchup between the teams as pointed out through my statistical analysis.

Last week, the Oklahoma Sooners was less than impressive in their 31-26, no cover, vs. Texas.  In that game, Texas had an edge in first downs (24-11), a 148-103 running game edge, and out passed Oklahoma 334-129.  That was an accumulated yardage edge for Texas of 482 to 232.  The difference for the Sooners was TDs on a kickoff return and an interception runback.  They should not expect any of those against the smartly coached Kansas St. special teams, under the tutelage of respected HC Snyder.   

Kansas St., meanwhile, has the advantage of playing with a week of rest, following their 35-13 victory over Texas Tech in which a balanced attack, running and passing for at least 245 yards, outgained TTRR 535 to 347.  Those numbers were a microcosm of their YTD offensive balance. For the season, Kansas St. averages 41 PPG with a running game averaging 189/4.5 and an offense gaining 444 YPG on 6.2 YP play.  But, the true statistical edge comes to the Wildcats as UNDERDOG using their Defensive Powerhouse status which has allowed just 21 PPG, 81/2.7 overland and 316/4.8 for the YTD. 

For your college football picks, consider Kansas St. revenge for a 41-31 home loss last year, as well as the road ability of the Wildcats who are 10-1 ATS as road dog of late under respected veteran mentor Snyder.  

College football picks: Kansas State ATS at 5Dimes

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