College Football Picks: UCF Knights vs. Louisville Cardinals

Jeff Grant

Monday, October 14, 2013 2:21 PM GMT

Despite possessing a perfect record, the Louisville Cardinals may not offer that much value in the betting market, as they prepare to host the UCF Knights Friday night. Let's break down the odds and see what looks promising.

Let’s take a closer look at the college football betting odds for this American Athletic Conference matchup at Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium, with the opening kickoff scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN. Where can we make the most with our sports picks in this game?

Winning on the road

UCF has won its first three road games in a season for the first time in school history, which includes a 24-17 victory over the Memphis Tigers as 9.5-point favorites on October 5th, while going ‘Under’ the betting total for a second consecutive contest.

The Knights are 1-7 SU and 4-4 ATS as underdogs the last two-plus seasons, with no clear edge in terms of the total (4-4 Over/Under).

Seeking perfection

Louisville is expected to have a perfect record at the end of the regular season, but will likely get shutout out of the 2014 BCS Championship game.

The Cardinals picked up a less-than-impressive 24-10 victory over the Rutgers Scarlet Knights as 19.5-point home favorites last Thursday.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the program is 13-4 SU and 7-9-1 ATS when playing at home, with the ‘Under’ going 9-5 in that situation.

Protecting the football

College football handicappers are going to have a hard time picking sides in this affair, as both the Knights and Cardinals rank in the top 10 nationally in turnover margin.

UCF quarterback Blake Bortels will need to be cautious in the passing game against one of college football’s top defenses, as he’s on pace to throw for 3,201 yards this season.

Bridgewater needs to dazzle in primetime

Cardinals quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will need to have his best game of the season Friday if he plans on capturing the 2013 Heisman Trophy—entering with 18 touchdowns and three interceptions.

Louisville is averaging 41 points per game, which has played a big part in the team out-gained all six of its opponents by a triple-digit margin in 2013.

Prediction

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Cardinals in their college football picks, as they’ve gone 8-0 ATS after failing to cover the number in back-to-back games since 2009.

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NCAA FB Pick: Bet the Louisville Cardinals -11.5 on the spread, at Ladbrokes

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