College Football Picks - UCF Knights vs. Houston Cougars - Week 9

Houston Cougars QB

Friday, October 28, 2016 7:33 PM GMT

Drew Martin is back with a College Football pick on UCF's visit to Houston. His take is simple: with two very talented quarterbacks likely going for 160 plus plays = Bet the over all day!

 

NCAAF Record YTD: 9-7

The UCF Knights head to Houston to take on the defending AAC and Sugar bowl champion Houston Cougars. This season has been as up and down for the Cougs as any team in the nation. They started off as possibly the hottest team in the country, knocking off the Sooners to kick off the 2016 campaign. Then, October came and has been a terrible month for Todd Herman and company dropping three straight against the number and going 1-2 including a straight up loss as 23 point favorites in the college football odds to the Mustangs of SMU. Houston will look to end the drought and win by margin vs American Athletic conference foe UCF who might well be the most improved team in the country. From a side perspective, it is tough to get a good gauge on this Houston team. 

Ask yourself the question, have the players checked out on Herman who is most assuredly being coveted by top-tier programs across the nation? Or is this a discount price on one of the most talented teams in the country? Tough question to answer, instead of trying to figure out that equation, I recommend looking at the total and a few important aspects of this matchup that favor each squad’s offensive units.

Houston offensively should be able to move the ball fairly easily. The Cougs are coming off of their worst offensive performance of the year. Keep in mind, it was a terrible spot for Greg Ward and their high-octane offense. They were facing an in-state rival on the road where SMU had extra time to prepare coming off of a bye week. The UCF defensive unit does not have extra prep time, in fact, they are coming off of facing UConn, who runs a completely different offense in terms of scheme, a downhill run heavy, ball control offensive approach. I project Houston to have points in plenty Saturday, considering the most similar offense UCF has faced was ECU who put up just short of 500 yards passing against the Knights (ECU QB Phillip Nelson was injured in the game). 

On the other side of the ball, UCF running an uptempo offense under first-year coach Scott Frost is heating up with new QB McKenzie Milton. The freshman from Hawaii followed Frost from recruiting camps in Oregon to Bright House Networks Stadium in Orlando and the results have been impressive. Similarly, to SMU’s offense, the Knights should be able to punch it in the endzone a few times to help this total up into the 60’s. If the Knights struggle offensively, it is not all lost, clock-chewing drives have not been their strong suit. Making UCF being able to shorten the game a long shot. This game has 160 plus snaps written all over it, with two talented quarterbacks and offensive skill position talent exceeding the defensive opposition I am on the OVER as my college football pick.

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Free College Football Pick: Over 60

Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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