College Football Picks - Trust History & Back Navy On Clash With Air Force

Navy Midshipmen Player Before The Snap

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, October 1, 2016 1:13 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 1, 2016 1:13 PM UTC

Despite being the underdogs for week 5 vs Air Force, the Navy Midshipmen has the allure of history going for them. Our expert capper Joe Gavazzi looks into this game and makes his NCAA Football pick.



 Navy vs Air Force (-7) 3:30 ET 

We enter Week 5 of the 2016 CFB season with enough statistical data to feel comfortable with its relevance. If you believe that the numbers don’t lie, you will want to review this week’s Article on this site entitled CFB Double Rushers and the 200 Club. It will give you a strong base for your statistical handicapping. Remember, that value remains the name of the game.  Use your AFP theory, described in an Article 2 weeks ago, to continue to search for contrary plays at best prices. For the football season on this site, selections are now 22-13 ATS (63%) with a plethora of winners for this week.

One series that hasn’t changed is the matchup of Navy vs. Air Force. Along with Army, these 3 play for the CIC (Commander in Chief) Trophy every season. Specific to the Navy/Air Force matchup, the Fly Boys are now coached for the 10th consecutive season by Troy Calhoun. In a similar way, Ken Niumatalolu is the coach of the Middies for the 9thconsecutive year. It is no surprise, there is plenty of history in this matchup!  

Before we get that, let’s look at the current fundamentals of each of these teams who enter at 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS.  Air Force has veteran QB Nate Romine as their signal caller, after he was forced to miss most of last season with injury. Last year, Air Force averaged 34 PPG, including 319/5.5 overland.  Last week, in their opening MWC game, they again established overland dominance by outrushing Utah St. 213-42. Before you get excited about that 27-20 win, note that a (+2) net TO margin was a major difference in a game where Utah St. won the yardage battle 414-326.  Air Force figures to again be a player in the MWC, where they have gone 11-6 SU the last 2 years.

For Navy, they are forced to take the field without 4-year starter, QB Reynolds, and only 2 RS on offense. True to Navy tradition, it has been a next man up. QB Worth has stepped up admirably at the signal caller position, leading the Middies to over 320 RYPG in their undefeated start. Despite the fact that each of these teams have conference affiliation, be assured that the CIC Trophy is still notably prominent on their things to do list.  

Now back to the history book aspect of this game. It is Navy who has dominated the CIC games with an ongoing record of 25-10 ATS, including 12-2 as underdog. This fits like a glove with Navy’s overall record of 26-9 ATS as road dog, including 18-7 ATS under coach Niumatalolu. Specific to this series, Navy is on a run of 14-3 ATS vs. the Fly Boys, including 10-1 ATS when posted as dog. Must respect the fact that Air Force has a strong home field, where they have won 14 consecutive games. But, the history and the price clearly point out the value to Navy in this contest today

I invite you to put the College Football odds in your favor and join me in my College Football pick on Navy this afternoon.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top sportsbooks is offering the top rated sportsbooks.


Free College Football Pick: Navy+7
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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