College Football Picks: Trust in Arizona State (-2.5) to Get Back on Track vs. Washington

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, November 11, 2015 11:55 PM GMT

We look at the Pac-12 matchup between the Washington Huskies and the Arizona State Sun Devils and offer a college football pick for our AFP Game of the Week.

Washington vs. Arizona State (-2.5), November 13 at 3:00 ET PAC 12 TV
This is Part I of Death in the Desert, when the Washington Huskies visit the Arizona St. Sun Devils for a Saturday afternoon fray at 3:00 ET as televised by Pac-12 TV.  They say it is a rivalry only if each team wins occasionally.  That has simply not been the case in recent games between Arizona St. and Washington.  Although these coaches have faced off only once against each other at their respective schools, Arizona St. has still recorded some monster wins in the last decade against Washington.  In reverse order, the scores favor Arizona St. by counts of 24-10, 53-24, 24-14, 24-17, 39-19, 44-20, 26-23 and 44-20. We will take any of those results to get us the money today.

 

Implications of the Game
Each of these teams enters at 4-5 SU, but the point spread results based on the expectations of these programs are quite diverse. Washington, in outperforming expectations, has gone 5-3 ATS with a (+76) AFP.  In quite a dichotomous way, AZ State is 2-7 ATS with a (-49) AFP. That combined (-125) net AFP differential favoring Arizona St. makes this line a TD less than where it would have been opening week.  It is this value that makes Arizona St. qualify as the AFP Game of the Week.  Each team enters with the same motivation of a 6-win season and Bowl bid.  Considering the remaining schedule for each team, it will not be an easy task.  That makes this game of prime importance for each school.

 

Fundamentals to Consider
Love the fundamentals of this contest!  A young and rebuilding Washington team under 2nd year HC Petersen, starts Frosh QB Browning at the controls.  Washington is gaining a very unlike Pac-12 354 YPG.  Negatively impacting Browning’s performance will be a blitzing defense by the Sun Devils that is set to unnerve the Frosh.  When Arizona St. has the ball, a more veteran QB Bercovici leads an offense averaging 31 PPG and 278 PYPG.  Look for them to have success on a home field where Arizona St. believes they have much to prove.  In their last appearance on this field, Arizona St. gained over 700 yards, scoring 55 points but losing a multi-OT heartbreaker to the Oregon Ducks

In my AFP Game of the Week, I invite you to join me as we put the college football odds in our favor with my college football pick on Arizona State, a series dominator with fundamentals in their favor.   

College Football Picks: Arizona State -2.5 at 5Dimes

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