College Football Picks: Troy vs. Arkansas State

Jeff Grant

Monday, September 9, 2013 12:37 PM GMT

Troy Trojans quarterback Corey Robinson has set numerous records in the Sun Belt Conference, but he’s lost two of three meetings against the Arkansas State Red Wolves. How do we plan on tackling this game with our College Football picks?

Let’s take a closer look at the College Football odds for this Sun Belt Conference matchup at Liberty Bank Stadium, with Thursday’s opening kickoff scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU.

Quite a combination

Troy is 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS to begin the 2013 campaign, as it picked up a 66-3 win over Savannah St as 51.5-point home favorites last Saturday, with quarterback Corey Robinson moving into first place in the Sun Belt Conference record books for pass completions and yards.

Robinson entered his senior season as the active leader in pass attempts, completions and total yards amongst FBS players, while head coach Larry Blakeney has racked up 171 career victories. 

All good things come to an end 

Arkansas State had its nine-game winning streak snapped in Week 2, as it suffered a 38-9 defeat to the Auburn Tigers as 10.5-point road underdogs Saturday, while going UNDER the betting total of 60. 

The Red Wolves are playing under their fourth head coach in as many years, while they also break in a new senior quarterback after the departure of standout Ryan Aplin.

Winning on the road

College football handicappers will find that the Trojans are 18-8 SU on the road against conference opponents since 2006—the best such mark in the Sun Belt over that span. 

Despite that success, it’s still important to point out that Troy is 3-10 SU and 6-6-1 ATS on the road overall over the last two-plus seasons.

Going for three in a row 

The Red Wolves have covered the number in the last three meetings in this series, while winning the last two in SU fashion.  Arkansas State’s offense has gained at least 450 yards in each of those affairs. 

The program picked up an exciting 41-34 victory over Troy as 3.5-point road favorites in last year’s meeting, with the defense forcing two field-goal attempts inside the two-yard line.

[gameodds]6/241532/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Prediction

So, where are we safest to place our college football picks in this matchup?

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Trojans with their sports picks, as Robinson has played the last three meetings in the series—helping the offense gain 1,396 total yards of offense in those contests.

College Football Pick:  Troy Trojans +10.5 at Bet 365