College Football Picks - Trio Of Games To Go Under Total For Week 3

Texas Longhorns teammates in field

Mark Lathrop

Saturday, September 17, 2016 4:41 PM GMT

Saturday, Sep. 17, 2016 4:41 PM GMT

Our College Football handicapper finishes the week with a trio of games that have value on the low side. Read on as he picks the games that he thinks will go Under the total in Saturday evening's action.

In my morning College Football totals picks, I found three games that had great value on the Over side of the total. For the night matchups, I’ve gone the other way to college football odds and found another three games that have value on the Under.

 

Mississippi State vs LSU 
These two teams have already cashed Under tickets in their combined 4 games in the first two weeks of the season and covered the total by nearly double digits in each one. LSU has shown itself to be a grinding offense, posting Under the total in 6 of their last 7 games, and ‘only’ putting up 34 points and 371 total yards against Jacksonville State. Jacksonville State, on the other hand, put up 368. The run vs. pass trend for LSU is heavily favoring the run right now, as LSU rushing attempts outnumber passing attempts by nearly 3 to 1 on the season. That’s great when it works, but as they saw against Wisconsin when they put up 3.2 yards per carry, when it doesn’t work they don’t have many other answers.

Mississippi State bounced back from their opening week upset against South Alabama to put on a defensive show against South Carolina, allowing only 243 total yards in the process. In that game, South Carolina was able to only put up 1.1 yards per rushing attempt, a fact that looms large over this matchup with LSU. If they continue that type of dominance against the run game versus LSU the result will be this game going under the total of 45 by a large margin.

 

Free NCAAF Pick: Under 45 
Best Line Offered: 
at Heritage

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Buffalo vs. Nevada
Buffalo makes the long trek to Nevada in the second game of a home and home series that started last year. In the game at Buffalo last September, Nevada just squeaked by the Bulls by a score of 24-21, a score that went well under the listed total of 53. That is normal for Buffalo, as the under is 4-0 in their last 4 non-conference games.

Nevada also has a strong trend of cashing Unders when it comes to playing teams with losing records, as they are 10-2 in that situation in their last 12 games. They will also have a distinct advantage against Buffalo as they have a first-year quarterback under the helm. Look for Buffalo’s 3rd down conversion rate of 29% to carry over to this game, and for their offensive struggles to continue. Take under 52 points at Heritage with confidence as one of your Saturday evening College Football Picks.

 

Free NCAAF Pick: Under 52 
Best Line Offered: 
at Heritage now offering a 50% Cash Bonus

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Texas vs. California
There are only a few situations for me that qualify as ‘auto-bets’. The first being in MLB, where if you can’t trust a pitcher on either side of the match up then takes the Over. Reason being that at least one of them is likely to get lit up and the bullpen will be called in for a long appearance.

The other is an Under pick on college football totals over the 80-point mark. Now granted, these two teams met last year in a thrilling game that saw 1,198 total yards on offense put up, and a final 45-44 score favoring Cal. That game saw 7 punts in total. But so much has to go right for that type of offensive outburst to be sustained on each side of the ball. A turnover deep in the opponent’s territory could mean 5 minutes off of the clock as you drive back the other way. The value here is always to be on the winning side, waiting for an extraordinary set of events to make this a losing wager. Take the Under here at 81.5 and enjoy a thrilling 35-31 win for one of the teams.

 


Free NCAAF Pick: Under 81.5 
Best Line Offered: 
at Bookmaker
2016 CFB: 6-4 ATS, +1.5 Units

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