College Football Picks: Three Upset Alerts to Consider for Week 12

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, November 21, 2015 12:11 AM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 21, 2015 12:11 AM UTC

Our college football handicapper has gone 13-5 (72%) ATS during the last four weeks with his upset alerts, and that includes a 3-0 sweep last Saturday. He has three more underdog winners this week. Find out who his college football picks are.

Michigan vs. Penn State 12:00 PM ET
Penn State has flown under the radar a bit this season. The Nittany Lions are 7-3, and that includes a perfect 6-0 on their home field. Their losses have come at the hands of Temple, Ohio State, and Northwestern. Those three teams are a combined 25-5 (.833) heading into this week’s action. The Nittany Lions defense is allowing just 17.0 points and 312.3 yards per game this season. Those defensive numbers are substantially better at home where they’re allowing 9.8 points, and 252.5 yards per game. I’m looking for Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenburg to have a huge impact on the outcome of this game.

Michigan’s defense made a huge statement during the first half of the schedule. However, in recent games they’ve faltered a bit. Despite entering this week on a three game winning streak, the Wolverines defense has allowed opponents an average of 27.7 points and 404.3 yards per contest. That’s a far cry from season averages of 14.8 points and 268.7 yards per game.

According to current college football odds at Bovada, they provide me with the most favorable option for this specific wager.

College Football Picks: Play on Penn State +3.5 (-110) at Bovada

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Iowa State vs. Kansas State 12:00 PM ET
Iowa State certainly has an excuse pertaining to their 3-7 record this season. Their seven losses have come against teams that are currently a combined 61-9, including four with just 1 loss, and another two that remain undefeated. They nearly put an end to the national championship hopes of Oklahoma State (10-0) last Saturday. They led the Cowboys 31-21 entering the fourth quarter before coming up short in a 35-31 loss as an 11.5 point underdog.

Kansas State began the season 3-0, and all of those wins coming against non-conference opponents. Then BIG-12 Conference action began, and they’ve proceeded to lose six games in a row.

My personal eye test favors Iowa State in this contest, especially as a touchdown underdog, and they’ll be one of my college football picks this week.

College Football Picks: Play on Iowa State +6 (-110) at SportsBetting

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Colorado State vs. New Mexico 5:30 PM ET
New Mexico enters this week as just the 15th team since 1980 to win back to back games when installed as an underdog of 20.0 points or more. They defeated Utah State 14-13 two weeks ago as a 20.05 point underdog, and pulled of a 31-24 stunner at Boise State last Saturday as a 31.0 point underdog. Those two wins have catapulted the Lobos up the Mountain West divisional standings, and they now control their own destiny in regards to playing in the conference championship game. If they win their two remaining games which are both at home, versus Colorado State, and against Air Force, they will have accomplished that improbable feat.

Colorado State surely won’t make things easy. The Rams are coming off a pair of ATS wins as a favorite over UNLV and Wyoming. Before we get carried away, those two teams have a combined record of 4-17 this season.

New Mexico will have a lot on the line on Saturday. Not only is their chances of playing in the MWC Title game hanging in the balance, they’ll be out to assure themselves of the first winning season since 2007. The Lobos have motivation, momentum, and emotion clearly on their side in this matchup.

College Football Picks: Play on New Mexico +2 (-105) at Heritage

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