College Football Picks: Texas vs. Iowa State

Jeff Grant

Monday, September 30, 2013 1:48 PM GMT

Monday, Sep. 30, 2013 1:48 PM GMT

The Iowa State Cyclones haven’t enjoyed much success in conference openers recently, as they prepare to take on the Texas Longhorns Thursday night.

Let’s take a closer look at the college football odds page for this Big 12 Conference matchup at Jake Trice Stadium, with the opening kickoff scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Take a look at my College Football Picks: Opening Odds Report for Week 6.

Winning the turnover battle  

Texas snapped its two-game losing streak by picking up a 31-21 victory over the Kansas State Wildcats as six-point home favorites on Sept. 21, while going UNDER the betting total for the first time in four contests.

The Texas Longhorns are 92-6 SU under head coach Mack Brown when winning the turnover battle—entering this affair with a plus-1.3 turnover margin.

Thursday night success 

Iowa State picked up its first win of the season with a 38-21 victory over the Tulsa Golden Hurricane as three-point road underdogs last Thursday, while going OVER the betting total for a second consecutive contest.

The Cyclones are now 21-10 SU all-time when playing on Thursdays, while they’ve won 22 of 23 games under head coach Paul Rhoads when allowing fewer than 24 points.

From the Ash-es

College football handicappers need to keep a close eye on the status of Longhorns quarterback David Ash, who is currently listed as questionable with concussion symptoms, as he was forced to sit out the second half versus the Wildcats.

 He completed 25 of 31 passes for 364 yards and two touchdowns in last year’s 33-7 victory over the Cyclones as 10.5-point home favorites.

Bad situation

The Cyclones have compiled a dismal 4-28 SU record against ranked opponents in their last 32 games in that situation, as they aim for their first-ever win in this particular series when playing in Ames.

Iowa State has dropped all four prior meetings at home to Texas—losing by an average of 25 points.

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Prediction

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Longhorns with their college football picks, as they’ve gone 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS as road favorites the last two-plus seasons.

Sports bettors should only lay the points if Ash is cleared to play.

College Football Pick: Texas Longhorns -8.5

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