College Football Picks: Texas Tech & LSU Will Go 'Over' 73.5

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, December 24, 2015 12:48 PM GMT

In this article we preview the Texas Bowl matchup between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and the LSU Tigers and offer a college football pick on the total.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2960433, "sportsbooksIds":[169,1096,93,19,92,238], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

College Football Pick: Over 73.5

Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

Texas Tech vs. LSU (-7/73) 9:00 ET ESPN
The Big 12 and SEC faceoff in the Texas Bowl, when the Texas Tech Red Raiders and LSU Bengal Tigers square off for this 9:00 ETkick as televised by ESPN.  TTRR games were among the highest scoring in the nation this season, averaging 89 PPG.  As a result, 9 of the 12 contests went flying OVER the posted TOTALS, with all 9 of the OVERS totaling 89 or more points.  Though LSU is often considered a “ground and pound” team, a declining defense resulted in a 6-4 OVER mark for the Tigers this season.  Let’s take a look at how this game may play out from a fundamental perspective, while reviewing each of these teams’ performances for the season.

 

Tigers & Red Raiders Overview
It was a lost season for LSU!  After a 7-0 SU start and No. 2 national ranking, the Tigers lost 3 consecutive November games to Alabama, Arkansas and Mississippi.  Critics called for the firing of 11th year HC Miles.  Only a 19-7 season ending victory over Texas A&M quieted the dissenters.  Along with the fallout, there was hardly a word uttered about the Tigers’ big back, Leonard Fournette, who was considered the Heisman frontrunner for the first 2 months of the season.  Though this is a comedown from the LSU Final Four aspirations, it is also an opportunity to redeem themselves on the offensive side of the football.  There are few Bowl opponents who could be more perfectly handpicked for that opportunity. 

For Texas Tech allows 43/543 on the defensive side of the ball, including 275/6.0 overland.  The number of lengthy runs made by Fournette against this defense may approach infinity.  Yet, TTTR, with their Air Raid offense, is capable of keeping pace.  Led by QB Kingsbury, who was a former signal caller for the Red Raiders, and is in his 3rd year as HC at his Alma Mater, the Red Raiders averaged 47/596.  Less you consider them to be a one-trick pony, know that they balance the airways with 206/5.7 overland.  From a Side perspective, also note that Kingsbury is 9-5 ATS in the role of underdog.  Look for veteran QB Mahomes, who completed 65% of his passes with a 32/14 ratio, to again run the offense to perfection.  

 

Final Analysis
In what figures to be a classic Texas shootout, I invite you to put the college football odds in your favor and join me on my college football pick on the Over 73 in the LSU/Texas Tech game.