College Football Picks: Take Utah St. & 'Under' vs. Boise St.

Matthew Jordan

Tuesday, October 13, 2015 2:47 PM GMT

Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2015 2:47 PM GMT

Boise State hopes to make a New Year's Six bowl as the Group of 5 representative, the Broncos can't afford to be tripped at Utah State. Go inside for our top college football picks.

Broncos Look Like Class Of Mountain West Again
Boise State's shot at a major bowl looked in trouble following a Week 2 35-24 loss at BYU. But the Broncos have since won four straight in dominant fashion -- not scoring less than 41 points in any of them -- and they have wins over two Power 5 Conference teams this season in Washington and Virginia.

The Broncos (5-1, 2-0 Mountain West) come off a 41-10 rout of Colorado State. Brett Rypien completed 22-for-35 for 339 yards and an 85-yard touchdown to Thomas Sperbeck. Jeremy McNichols rushed 17 times for 104 yards and two scores. Sperbeck caught five passes for 178 yards and two scores (the other from fellow receiver Shane Williams-Rhodes on a trick play and the first pass of Williams-Rhodes' career). McNichols, incidentally, is tied with LSU running back and Heisman favorite Leonard Fournette for the national lead with 12 rushing scores. If you count McNichols' two receiving scores this season, he leads the FBS in total TDs with 14.

Colorado State’s opening touchdown with 14:56 left in the second quarter broke the Bronco defense’s shutout streak at 108:13. Boise State had not allowed an opponent to score for seven straight quarters up to that point. Colorado State’s touchdown drive was for 75 yards, only the fifth drive of 70+ yards all season by a Boise State opponent. Safety Darian Thompson recorded his fourth interception of the season and the 18th of his career. That ties him with Eric Weddle for the all-time Mountain West lead.

Boise State is the only team in the FBS to rank in the Top 10 in both scoring offense and scoring defense, and in the Top 20 in total offense and total defense. The offense ranks 10th in scoring (40.7 ppg) and the defense seventh in scoring (12.0 opponents' ppg). BSU is 19th in total offense (482.3 yards per game) and fifth in total defense (259.5 yards allowed per game).

Boise State is an absurd 108-10 (.915) in conference games since the start of the 2000 season. The Broncos are 4-2 ATS on college football odds this season and 2-4 'over/under.'

 

Aggies Enter Off Perhaps Best Game Of Season
Utah State (3-2, 2-0) won 56-15 at Fresno State on Saturday. Devante Mays rushed for a career-high 92 yards and three touchdowns, while LaJuan Hunt added two scores of his own. The two tailbacks combined for 133 yards rushing and the five scores as the Aggies won their second straight game and put up a season-high 482 yards of total offense, including 201 on the ground. Kent Myers was 18-for-25 passing for a career-best 260 yards and one touchdown for Utah State, which snapped a six-game losing streak to the Bulldogs. It was USU's biggest margin of victory in the series. Utah State’s 56 points are a season-high and its most points since scoring 70 points at home against Weber State in 2013 and most on the road since scoring 63 points at Idaho on Oct. 25, 1997.

Utah State usually has one of the best defenses in the country and this year is no different. USU ranks second in the Mountain West and 18th in the nation in total defense (297.4 ypg). It also ranks second in the MW and 15th in the nation in rushing defense (102.2 ypg), second in the MW and 30th in the nation in scoring defense (19.2 ppg), and fourth in the MW and 42nd in the nation in passing defense (195.2 ypg). Utah State’s defense has allowed 84 first downs through five games (16.8 pg), which ranks third in the MW and 12th in the nation.

Utah State has won 11 straight home games, which ranks as the fourth-longest home winning streak in school history. The school record is 17 from 1959-63. The last time Utah State lost a home game was on Oct. 12, 2013 to Boise State, 34-23, snapping its school record 13-game conference winning streak.

USU is 3-2 ATS on college football picks and 3-2 O/U.

 

Last Meeting
Boise State was a 10-point favorite when it hosted Utah State last year (total 54.5) and the Broncos rolled 50-19. Jay Ajayi, who is now with the Miami Dolphins, rushed for a career-high 229 yards and five touchdowns as Boise clinched a spot in the Mountain West Championship Game. Boise State had 498 total yards and scored touchdowns on its first five possessions against what was the nation's fifth-ranked defense. Boise State is 15-4 all-time against Utah State and beaten the Aggies 12 straight times. Six of the last seven games have been decided by at least 30 points, and all but one of the games during the 12-game win streak over Utah State has been decided by double figures. Boise State is 7-2 in Logan.

 

Final Analysis
Two good defenses so go 'under' the total. Take the points. Utah State has covered 12 of its past 16 on Fridays. It is 20-6 ATS in its past 26 vs. teams with a winning record. The 'under' is 8-2 in USU's past 10 vs. teams with a winning record. 

College Football Picks: Utah State +9.5 & Under 47 at Pinnacle

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