College Football Picks: Take Stanford to Roll Tonight Minus the Points vs. Oregon State

Charles Stark

Friday, September 25, 2015 12:56 PM GMT

Normally after a big upset win the following week will lead to a letdown. This week seems like a trap game for Stanford after beating USC. Let's review the betting odds as I serve my free NCAAF pick.

 Traveling to Oregon State seems like the perfect scenario for the Beavers to hang in there with the Cardinals. I don't think so. What I think we're going to see is a Stanford team that is now rolling and they will continue to do so in Corvallis.

 

Stanford vs. Oregon Odds
For my Friday night pick I'm going to back the Stanford Cardinal minus the points against Oregon State. Right now odds makers have the Cardinals at a -16 favorite, but I think they win this game by three touchdowns. The best College Football Odds out there at this number is at Pinnacle Sports -101.

College Football Pick: Stanford -16 at Pinnacle

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Stanford Cardinals
Stanford comes in offensively averaging 26 points per game, 401.7 total yards per game, and a third-down 40.48% conversion rate. They simply would not give up against USC last week and continued to move the ball. After struggling in their opener at Northwestern, who is probably better than people think, they bounced back with two solid wins. Against USC last week, in which I took the Cardinals, they scored 41 points off of 474 yards of total offense. But that is not the impressive part, what impressed me was the fact they completely controlled the clock on the offensive side possession wise. Stanford had the ball almost 40 minutes compared to USC at just over 20 minutes, that is a big disparity. I think Oregon State with a pretty weak defense is going to struggle to stop a Stanford team that is starting to roll.

Defensively the Cardinals have allowed 18 points per game, 312.7 yards per game, and a third-down 44.44% conversion rate. Last week against USC they started out getting punched but then made some nice adjustments after allowing two touchdowns in the first quarter.  After that they just allowed one TD in the 2nd and 3rd quarters and only a field goal in the fourth.  They have a lot of new faces on defense having lost nine starters on that side of the ball, but the talent is definitely there. Against Oregon State I don't see them completely shutting them down, but they should get enough three and outs to let their offense continue to move the ball and score.

 

Oregon State Beavers
Oregon State has averaged 21 points per game, 288 total yards per game, and a third-down 24% conversion rate. Their yards per game and their offense on third-down are two of the lowest ranks in the country. They have been very productive in the ground game though averaging 181 yards per game, and I'm sure they will stick with this as a key to trying to upset Stanford. There is no doubt in my mind that Gary Anderson will get Oregon State back on track, but this season they just lack some depth and weapons to win many games. The offensive line is good but they are in for their toughest challenge so far this season facing an inexperienced but very talented Stanford defense that is improving.

Defensively Oregon State has allowed 28 points per game, 329 total yards per game, and a third-down 26.92% conversion rate. They have a lot of new faces on that side of the ball but contrary to the offense the defense on total yards and their third-down conversion rate are two of the best in the country ranking in the top 30. That being said, they have not faced an offense like they will see today and I think their inexperience will keep them from being able to stop the Cardinals. I expect they will come out fired up and maybe have a pretty good first quarter, but as Stanford continues to keep possession and wear them down I believe they will be in for a long day.

Although this might seem like a good spot to go ahead and grab the points I wouldn't recommend it. For one of your College Football Picks this week I suggest taking the Cardinals minus the points in this spot. That last game against USC has rejuvenated them and they should come into this game fired up and win by at least three touchdowns.

Not Convinced? Check Out Another Cappers Take on this Match.