College Football Picks: Take Minnesota -3.5 vs. an Overmatched Purdue Team

Joe Catalano

Thursday, October 8, 2015 7:39 PM GMT

Thursday, Oct. 8, 2015 7:39 PM GMT

Purdue has the more productive offense while Minnesota has the better defense. Purdue has proven to be unpredictable, keep reading as we give you the best college football pick.

 

Kickoff is set for Saturday, October 10th, at 3:30.pm. EST at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Indiana. As mentioned before, the Golden Gophers are a mere 3 point (+100) betting favorite and appear to be the far superior team as their two losses came against highly rated teams, but Purdue's outstanding showing has made an impression with the odds makers.

The total appears to make sense as Minnesota averages in the 20 point range and all of their games have been close in their victories. As for Purdue, they've allowed 33 points per game, but have a productive offense, averaging slightly over 28 points per game. Purdue must eliminate turnovers to have any chance in this matchup. Minnesota averages just 15.4 points per game, but that total could double in a matchup against the team from the basemant of the Big Ten West Division.

 

A Run For Their Money
The Purdue defense finally put up a legitimate effort against a team that's known for their defense and they almost were able to pull off a massive victory against an elite opponent. In the end, wins and losses are what matters, unfortunately for the Boilermakers.

Playing catchup is difficult as the Boilermakers discovered as they trailed 21-7 going into the 4th quarter and made a valiant effort, but came up a field goal short. Markell Jones has been the heart of this team as quarterback Austin Appelby has missed the last two games and freshman, David Blough has filled in admirably. That said, Jones has been doing most of the work as he's rushed for 405 yards and 5 TD on 6.8 yards per carry. Jones came up huge against MSU as he scored twice and carried the football for 157 yards on 22 carries.

 

Appleby Listed As Questionable
Appelby is questionable for this upcoming game and you can expect Jones to continue to be the main source of offense. I expect Jones to have a solid game as Minnesota allows 154.6 yards per game against the run. Purdue's problem in this game could be the defense as they allow 435 yards total to a team that's capable of beating them by the run or the pass.

 

Balanced Offensive Attack
Along with a strong defense, this is what has worked for the Minnesota offense. Quarterback, Mitch Leidner, has done a solid job of getting the football to his key receivers. At 6 foot 4, 236 pounds, Leidner is able to avoid the sack and has been accurate enough to get the football to his 3 key receivers in K.J. Maye (254 yards, 3 TD), Drew Wolitarsky (223 yards 1 TD), and Eric Carter (17 receptions, 154 yards).

If you add in freshman running back, Rodney Smith (94 carries, 395 yards, 1 TD) and Minnesota has just enough offensively to get the job done as the element of predicatbility is taken out of the equation. The Golden Gophers need to forget about a 27-0 loss to Northwestern last week and realize that this is Purdue and the Boilmakers have a question mark at the quarterback position. This is a huge game for Minnesota, who are a mere 3 point favorite.

College Football Pick: Minnesota -3.5 (-105) at 5Dimes

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