College Football Picks: Take Idaho +34 in High-Scoring Game vs. Auburn

Darin Zank

Thursday, November 19, 2015 11:25 PM GMT

Auburn is one of this season's bigger disappointments, as evidenced by its 3-7 record against the college football odds. This week the Tigers are huge favorites as they step outside SEC play to host Idaho.

Vandals-Tigers Betting Odds
This week's college football odds market opened Auburn at around -32 over Idaho, with a total of 62. In the early betting this week most books bumped the Tigers to -33 and -34, and the total to 63.

 

The Situation
Auburn (5-5 SU, 3-7 ATS) hoped to contend for a division title in the SEC this season, and possibly a spot in the national championship playoff. Instead, the Tigers reside in the West Division basement, and still need one victory just to become bowl-eligible. And they play Alabama next week in their season finale, so they might want to get the job done this week.

Auburn started 2-0 this season, with a win over Louisville, then lost two straight, then won two more in a row to get to 4-2 but has since lost three of its last four games, after falling at home to Georgia last week 20-13. The Tigers held a 10-3 lead over the Bulldogs late into the third quarter, but gave up 17 straight points to fall down 20-10. They then drove inside the Georgia 10-yard line but lost a fumble. A late field goal got Auburn to within one score, but an onside kick attempt came up empty.

On the day the Tigers only generated 243 yards of offense, but held the Bulldogs to 275. However, they also lost the turnover battle 3-0.

Two weeks ago Auburn upset Texas A&M in College Station 26-10, but prior to that the Tigers lost back-to-back at home to Ole Miss 27-19 and at Arkansas 54-46 in overtime.

Meanwhile, with three victories this season Idaho (3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS) has equaled its win total of the last three seasons combined. The Vandals opened this season 0-2, with a 59-9 loss at USC, then beat Wofford, then lost two more in a row. But Idaho then did something it hadn't done since 2009, winning consecutive games, over Troy and Louisiana-Monroe.

The Vandals then almost made it three in a row, but blew a 23-point, second-half lead and lost to New Mexico State in overtime 55-48. They then blew a 24-0 lead and lost to South Alabama 52-45. Last week, though, Idaho didn't get a chance to blow a lead, losing to Appalachian State 47-20, missing ATS as three-touchdown underdogs.

The Vandals got outgained by the Mountaineers 511-299, outrushed 401-56 and lost time-of-possession by a 37-23 margin.

These two teams have met once before, back in 1999, a 30-23 Auburn victory.

 

Vandals-Tigers, By the Numbers
Idaho is averaging 415 yards per game on offense, 144 on the ground, while allowing 489 YPG, 279 on the ground. The Vandals have played what the Sagarin ratings at USAToday.com rank as the 101st-toughest schedule in college football this season.

Auburn, meanwhile, is averaging 369 YPG on offense, 191 YPG rushing, while allowing 412 YPG, 187 on the ground. But the Tigers have played the ninth-toughest schedule in the country.

 

Vandals-Tigers Totals Trends
Idaho is 7-3 on the OVERS this season, as Vandals games have averaged a healthy 71 points per.

Auburn is 6-2-2 on the UNDERS, as Tigers games have averaged 52 points.

 

Vandals-Tigers College Football Picks
Talent-wise, Auburn clearly outclasses Idaho, but the Tigers have been getting iffy play at quarterback, and their largest margin of victory this season is only 16 points. Meanwhile, the Vandals have scored at least 35 points four times this season, and at least 45 points in two of their last three games. We'll take Idaho and the points. Also, the Vandals have given up 45 points or more seven times this year, so we're thinking OVER.

College Football Picks: Idaho +34 at Heritage and OVER 62.5 at Pinnacle