College Football Picks: Strong Home Field Advantage Gives Underdog Value to Kansas State +10.5 vs. TCU

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, October 8, 2015 9:02 PM GMT

Thursday, Oct. 8, 2015 9:02 PM GMT

We’re going to examine Saturday’s Big 12 showdown between TCU and Kansas State. Go inside to read our intriguing betting preview article, which concludes with a college football pick.

Horned Frogs on the Road to take on Wildcats
Kansas State will look to spring the upset over #2 ranked TCU on Saturday. The opening kickoff at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, Kansas is slated for 7:30 PM ET. The current (10/8) college football odds at Heritage have TCU as a 10.5-point favorite, and the posted total is 63. These teams have met three times since TCU joined the Big 12, and Kansas State has won two of the three. The Horned Frogs lone victory came a season ago in a 41-20 home win.

 

Offensive Juggernaut
There’s been no slowing down the TCU offense in their last four games. During that stretch their averaging 57.8 points and 675.3 yards per game. However, we must keep in mind, they won by only 6 at Minnesota, and needed a fluke fourth down deflected touchdown pass in the waning seconds of a 56-53 narrow escape against Texas Tech. TCU has gone 5-0 in their last five games on the road, but failed to cover in any of those contests. Their winning margin in those games was 3, 5, 4, 4, and 8 points.

 

Strong Home Field
If there’s one thing that’s stayed constant for the Kansas State football program over the past nine seasons, they’ve protected their home field. The Wildcats have gone 37-8 in their last 45 games in Manhattan. Even more applicable is the fact they’re 4-0 SU&ATS in their last four as a conference home underdog of 12.5 or less, and won by an average of 9.0 points per game. Kansas State enters this week 3-1, and their only loss came last Saturday in gut wrenching fashion. The Wildcats were nipped 36-34 at #21 Oklahoma State, and the winning points came on a Cowboys field goal with just 0:26 remaining to play.

 

Final Analysis
I have a sneaky suspicion that Bill Snyder will have his Kansas State team more than ready to play on Saturday. Granted the Wildcats have struggled a bit defensively during their previous two games. We also can’t ignore the fact that TCU has given up 89 points and 1015 yards combined in their wins against SMU and Texas Tech. I’ll have a small lean toward the home underdog in this contest for one of my college football picks.

College Football Picks: Play on Kansas State +10.5 over TCU at BetOnline

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