College Football Picks: Strong Betting Value Found on Air Force +12.5 vs. Boise State

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, November 18, 2015 11:41 PM GMT

Our college football analyst breaks down Friday’s game between Air Force and Boise State. Join us in reading this insightful betting preview article that culminates with his college football pick.

Friday Night Mountain West Showdown
Boise State will host Air Force on Friday in a key MWC matchup. The opening kickoff at Bronco Stadium in Boise, Idaho is slated for 9:30 PM ET. The game will be televised on ESPN2. At the time of this writing, college football odds at The Greek has Boise State installed as a 12.5 point favorite, and a posted total of 55.5. Air Force upset Boise State a season ago as a 13.0 point home underdog by a score of 28-14. The Falcons took advantage of 7 Broncos turnovers in that game.

 

Unimpressive Resumes
You may be surprised to know that despite both teams going 7-3 thus far, neither owns a victory over an opponent that currently has a winning record. In their defense, seven of twelve MWC teams have a combined overall record of 19-43, and a cumulative conference record of 15-31.

 

Controlling Their Own Destiny
Air Force is currently in first place at 5-1 in the Mountain Division standings. They hold a 1.0 game lead over both Boise State and New Mexico. Ironically enough, it’s those two teams that Air Force will face in their final two regular season games. Although easier said than done, Air Force simply has to win these two upcoming contests, and they’ll be in the MWC Championship Game facing in all likelihood San Diego State.

 

Shocking Loss
Speaking of controlling its own destiny, Boise State was in that exact situation entering last Saturday’s home game against New Mexico. Then the unthinkable transpired, they were upset as a 30.5 point home favorite by the Lobos. The Broncos have been their own worst enemy during its past four games, turning the ball over an enormous 14 times, and that includes 8 of those occurring during a 52-26 loss at Utah State. They’ll need wins over Air Force and San Jose State in their final two games. Even with that occurring, they’ll still need Air Force to knock off New Mexico during both team’s regular season finale in order be part of the MWC Title Game.

 

Final Thoughts and Pick
Going into last Saturday’s game against New Mexico, Boise State had gone 103-4 at home since 1999, and that included 60-1 against conference opponents. That gives you an idea of how stunning the loss to New Mexico was. The Broncos haven’t lost two home games in a row since 11/8/1997. Since joining the Mountain West Conference, Boise State has failed to cover in each of their three games against Air Force. Although I think that Air Force will be hard pressed to come away with a win on the blue turf, the value lies with the double digit underdog, and that will be one of my college football picks.

College Football Picks: Play on Air Force +12.5 at The Greek

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