College Football Picks: Stats Favor Double-Digit Road Dog Missouri vs. Georgia

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, October 13, 2015 6:29 PM GMT

Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2015 6:29 PM GMT

In a line that is 10 points higher than where it would have been opening week, we have the odds in our favor ... Let us give you our college football pick on this betting preview article.

Missouri vs. Georgia (-16) 7:30 ET SEC TV
The Missouri Tigers travel to Athens, Georgia Saturday evening for a 7:30 ET kickoff against the Georgia Bulldogs. Missouri is the 2-time defending SEC Champ. They enter today with a 4-2 SU, 1-5 ATS record in which they failed to cover by a net of 43 points. That makes this line 10 points more than where it would have been opening week, putting the odds clearly in our favor in this contest. Though some may favor a Georgia bounce back, following a pair of defeats, the truth is that Georgia, a team who perennially has National Championship aspirations, may be an early season Towel Tosser after a major injury and a loss last week has detoured post-season plans.  

When these teams met last year, Georgia inflicted a 34-0 loss to the Tigers in Columbia. Aided by 5 Missouri TOs and a 379-147 yardage advantage, it was a game in which Missouri was never close. It was also Missouri’s only conference home loss of the year, giving the Tigers a meaningful revenge motive.    

Last week, Georgia suffered a crushing blow when they lost RB Chubb to a brutal knee injury. Despite leading Tennessee into the 2nd half, it was the Vols who responded, grasping victory from the jaws of defeat for the first time in 4 narrow decisions. Now, Georgia must regroup, despite 3 overall losses and a pair of SEC losses. They are well equipped to get the victory with the far superior offense (37/451 to 18/312 for Missouri). But, the defensive side of the ball is another issue. 

Under 15th year HC Pinkel, the Missouri Tigers are fielding one of their best defenses in recent memory. As a qualified superdog, Missouri is allowing just 14 PPG, 276 YPG, 4.1 YPP and 113/2.9 overland. They have yet to allow more than 21 points in any game. Though they have already suffered a pair of conference defeats, and a key one at home to Florida last week (21-3), this has been a most resilient team under HC Pinkel. In fact, the Tigers have covered 5 consecutive games following a defeat. Even with frosh QB Lock making his biggest road start of his career, I expect a positive performance from Missouri. 

 

Final Analysis 
In a line that is 10 points higher than where it would have been opening week, we have the college football odds in our favor with this college football pick of Missouri as a double-digit dog.

College Football Pick: Missouri +16 at Heritage

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