College Football Picks: Stand Behind Troy to Take Down Georgia State

Steven Suarez

Thursday, November 26, 2015 6:05 PM GMT

The college football odds suggest we're going to be in for a highly competitive game between Georgia State and Troy. What's our best bet? Join us inside for the best selection on this game.

Odds Overview
A quick glance at the college football odds tells you all you need to know. As of now, the Panthers are favored by a solitary point across all of the top sportsbooks.

More interested in trying to beat the total? The O/U is at 56 points, but keep tracking the live line movement to ensure you're getting the best value you can.

 

Georgia State Panthers
All in all, this season hasn't been anything to write home about for Georgia State. The Panthers are 4-6 on the year and have yet to string together more than two wins in a row, 

More recently though, Georgia State has managed to pick up wins in consecutive games, topping Texas State on the road and then South Alabama at home. In the win over the Jaguars, QB Nick Arbuckle had a solid performance, throwing for 311 yards and a touchdown without throwing a pick while also running for an additional score. Donovan Harden and Penny Hart were the top targets, with the latter recording seven catches for 77 yards and a touchdown.

The Panthers have mostly been reliant on Arbuckle's arm and the passing game, and he's posted a 21:10 TD:INT ratio leading into Friday. The running game hasn't been all that productive, as no back on the team has logged more than 320 rushing yards. Hart and Robert Davis have been the preferred targets for Arbuckle, combining for over 1,700 receiving yards and 10 trips to the end zone. Who will make the biggest impact against Troy?

 

Troy Trojans
Having alternated losses and wins over their previous five, the consistency has been hard to come by for the Trojans. They stand at 3-7 overall and have won only two of their six conference matchups thus far.

Troy was beaten up badly last week, losing 45-10 to Georgia Southern. After a competitive first quarter (tied 10-10), the Trojans completely shut down, and they were dominated for the remaining three quarters en route to the heavy defeat. Brandon Silvers could only muster up 134 passing yards, and the offense failed to reach the end zone even once in the rout. 

Needless to say, there's no way but up for Troy, who come in averaging 27.0 points (75th in the country) while surrendering 29.1 points a game (82nd). The Trojans have made strides defensively, yet still have some holes, and they'll need to show up with a disciplined effort against the likes of Arbuckle and Hart, among others. One positive? Troy has already made some tough trips this season (at Wisconsin, NC State and Mississippi State), so they're unlikely to be frazzled too much by the Georgia State home crowd.

 

Final Analysis
We're not going to pretend like we're experts on both of these teams, but that doesn't mean we can't locate an edge in the odds and try to exploit it.

Is there anything that stands out for Friday?

Well, it's a little surprising to see the Panthers favored by only a point, despite having the superior record and being at home. That would suggest oddsmakers believe Troy to be the better team if this were to be played on a neutral field, as home-field advantage is normally worth around three points.

We like how the Trojans have been battle tested this season too, as they've played some very solid programs in Wisconsin, Mississippi State and NC State. That should serve them well for this matchup with a Georgia State team that hasn't been all that good at home in 2015, going 1-4 in five games. We'll back the underdogs in this situation as our college football pick.

Pick: Troy +1 at Pinnacle

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