College Football Picks: Southern Mississippi vs. Boise State

Jeff Grant

Friday, September 27, 2013 2:02 PM GMT

The Boise State Broncos have never lost a regular season home game against a non-conference opponent under head coach Chris Petersen, but they may have a hard time covering the point spread against the Southern Miss Golden Eagles Saturday.

Let’s take a closer look at the college football odds for this non-conference matchup at Bronco Stadium, with the opening kickoff scheduled for 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPNU.

Take a look at my College Football Picks: Opening Odds Report for Week 5.

The losing continues

Southern Miss has lost 15 games in a row, but it does come into this game with an extra week of rest after suffering a 24-3 setback to the Arkansas Razorbacks as 24.5-point road underdogs on Sept. 14.

The Golden Eagles are 7-7 ATS as underdogs since 2011, with the OVER going 10-4 in that situation.

Quite a situation

Boise State will likely bounce back from its one-point loss to Fresno State last time out, as it has compiled a perfect 16-0 record during the regular season against non-conference opponents under Chris Petersen.

It’s still important to point out that the program is 8-0 SU and 1-7 ATS as favorites of 21.5 to 31 points the last two-plus seasons.

Hold onto the football

College football handicappers should take a long look at backing the Golden Eagles at this price in the market, as they did manage to out-gain the Broncos by a 424-310 margin in last year’s 40-14 defeat in the series. 

Southern Miss turned the ball over four times in its first seven drives in that affair, which led to numerous short fields for Boise State to take advantage of. 

Moving quickly 

It’s all about pace for Boise State’s offense, as it has tallied 111 first downs through four games this season—a number that ranks fourth nationally in that category.

The Broncos are also a dominating 81-4 SU at home since 2000—the best winning percentage in the country in that particular situation.

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Prediction 

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Golden Eagles in this affair, as the road team is on a 28-10 ATS run in the Broncos’ last 38 games.

College Football Pick: Southern Miss Golden Eagles +28