College Football Picks - South Florida vs Temple - Week 8

South Florida Bulls

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, October 18, 2016 2:43 PM GMT

Tuesday, Oct. 18, 2016 2:43 PM GMT

The high-octane South Florida Bulls square off against the Temple Owls in Philadelphia Friday night (7:00 p.m. ET), laying 6.5 points. We predict Temple will not be able to keep up with the AAC points leaders.

SBR record YTD: 138-97-6 (avg. odds -105); NCAAF 2016-17: 18-18 (avg. odds -109)

South Florida Bulls (6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS)

Can any defense tame the Bulls? They have scored 35 points or more in their last 11 games, going over their projected team total in all but one. South Florida’s 42.2 points per game against FBS foes ranks 10th most in the nation and tops the AAC.

The offense is at its best rushing the ball, accruing 6.3 yards per carry behind dual-threat quarterback Quinton Flowers. The junior leads the team with 655 rushing yards, to go along with 1,535 through the air on 106 of 181 passes.

The defense is on the field a lot due to the team’s quick pace and efficiency. It’s most vulnerable to the run as the unit wears down late in games, yielding 200.7 rushing yards per contest. D-coordinator Raymond Woodie rolls out a 4-2-5 scheme, which proves to hold up well against passing attacks. The Bulls allow only 6.5 yards per attempt.

South Florida is 9-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 AAC games. Under head coach Willie Taggart, the Bulls are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS as a road favorite, beating the spread by 8.8 points per game.

 

Temple Owls (4-3 SU, 6-1 ATS)

Temple upset Central Florida 26-25 last weekend as a 3-point underdog, scoring a game-winning touchdown pass in the final second of play. It moves the Owls to an 18-7 ATS record when spotted points mark under head coach Matt Rhule. They’ll need to beat the number again against the Bulls, getting nearly a touchdown in the betting market.

Temple is very efficient on offense for the number of yards the unit accrues; its .439 points per play rank 39th in the FBS. Senior QB Phillip Walker directs the offense.  He’s tossed for 1,582 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions on 118 of 201 passes.

The unit struggles to sustain drives, though, owning a dismal 29.3 third-down conversion rate. They’ll need to be better to keep the potent South Florida offense off the field as much as possible.

The Owls’ calling card is its defense. It allows a paltry 4.9 yards per play, boosted by senior defensive end Haason Reddick’s 14 tackles for a loss (AAC leader). The unit is best against the pass, yielding just 180.5 passing yards per game to FBS foes.

 

Final Analysis

Temple struggles against high-scoring teams; it doesn’t have enough firepower to keep up late. Under Rhule, the Owls are 6-15 SU versus opponents posting 27 points or more per game entering a contest. However, they are 15-6 ATS. Many of the covers have hit when gaining higher numbers, though, going 9-1 ATS in the odds board when receiving more than a touchdown. With the line staying below the key mark, we’ll take the Bulls at -6.5 points.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top sportsbooks is offering the top rated sportsbooks.

 Free College Football Pick: South Florida Bulls -6.5Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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