College Football Picks: Side With Oregon -17 at Home vs. Washington State

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, October 7, 2015 7:45 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2015 7:45 PM UTC

The Oregon Ducks host the Washington State Cougars and we found betting value on Oregon for Saturday's Crusher of the Week college football pick.

Washington State vs. Oregon (-17) - Saturday, October 10, 6:00 ET Pac-12 TV
In a time change to 6:00 ET as televised by the Pac-12 Network, Washington St. will visit Oregon.  Last year, Oregon could prevail just (38-31) on the Palouse.  It was an aerial circus which saw the Cougars out pass the Ducks 436-329.  That was not an uncommon result in this series which has seen Washington State cover 5 straight against Oregon.  What has changed in this game is the betting line.  In the last 6 years, Oregon has been favored in this contest (going backward) by 22, 40, 31, 38, 37 and 35 points.  That is an Average of 34 PPG.  Despite the fact that Oregon has a pair of losses and may be down a notch, this is still a huge line adjustment, giving us great value in the college football odds for what can only be termed our college football pick as Crusher of the Week.  In the last 4 weeks, the college Crusher is 4-0 ATS, including last week’s win with Baylor (-17) in their (63-35) destruction of Texas Tech.  When combined with the NFL Crusher of the Week, the 4-week combined record is 7-1 ATS.

Under 4th year HC Mike Leach, these Cougars are not about to change their spots.  There is no doubt that this is a passing team with the worst run pass balance in CFB.  In 3 years under Leach, the Cougars have allowed an average of 35 PPG.  This season, Washington St. is 2-2 SU ATS.  Victories have come by 37-34 at Rutgers and 31-14 vs. Wyoming.  But, they were also bad enough to lose vs. Portland St. (24-17).  In last week’s game vs. Cal, they were a Big Dog Bitedown winner for us, losing 24-38 as 19 point dog in an aerial shootout.  But, their issues remain the same with the ground game that averages just 23/69/3.0, while putting the ball in the air 51 times per game.  That is simply not the statistical profile of a winner. 

As mentioned, Oregon has a pair of losses, something that has not happened this early in the season for the Ducks in over a decade.  With National Title hopes dimmed, the Ducks have reset their sights.   The buy sign came with a 2nd half explosion at Colorado last week, when they erupted for a 41-24 victory.  In so doing, they return to a ground game which saw them hold an overland edge 361-77 on the Buffs.  Today, they return home with great motivation.  For, the last time they played on this field, September 26th, they lost 62-20 to Utah.  That is a tough PHL (previous home loss) to swallow.  Remember, this is a home team, who under the tenure of former HC Kelly and current 3rd year HC Helfrich, had gone 39-3 SU on this field the previous 5 years. Regardless of who plays QB for Oregon, the Ducks never seem to miss a beat on offense.  This year, they are averaging 42 PPG on 528 YPG with a running game that is averaging 300/5.9.  Look for them to use that ground game, to play keep away from the Cougars and with the motivation of their previous performance on this field, Crush them into submission.

At this value price, the projected 4 TD victory will result in an easy ATS victory.

College Football Picks: Oregon -17 at 5Dimes

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