College Football Picks: Side With NC State to Cover +10.5 vs. Clemson

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, October 29, 2015 5:24 PM GMT

We look at Saturday's Clemson vs. NC State matchup for our Lone Ranger Game of the Week. Find out which college football pick offers more betting value.

Clemson (-10) vs. NC State, Saturday, October 31, 3:30 ET ESPN2
The Clemson Tigers visit NC State for this 3:30 ET kick as televised by ESPN2.  When we cash my college football pick on NC St. as the Lone Ranger Game of the Week, it will boost our record on these plays to 10-3-1 ATS on the combination of CFB plus NFL picks in this category.  When you have read my analysis, it will be clear why you will have the college football odds in your favor when making this wager.

Last year, Clemson destroyed NC State (41-0).  The stats were every bit as bad as the final score with Clemson gaining a balanced 493 yards to 156 for the Wolfpack and profiting from a (+3) net TO margin.  It is tough for a team to get motivated to play a squad you have beaten that badly!  If that is not enough of a reason for a Clemson letdown, consider last week when Clemson defeated Miami, FL so badly, (58-0) with a 567-146 yardage edge, that Miami fired HC Al Golden! A final reason for the Clemson letdown is that all their victories will be for not, if they lose next week’s game at Florida St.  The Tigers are just 3-7 ATS in games prior to playing Florida State.  Finally, the hot start by Clemson has resulted in an inflated line.  Along with their perfect 7-0 SU slate, they have gone 6-1 ATS covering by a net of 80 points.  This has added at least a TD to where this line would have been opening week.

NC State got their season back on track with a confidence-building win last week against Wake Forest with a balanced offense that totaled 475 yards.  They outgained the Deacons by over 200 yards in a (35-17) win.  Earlier ACC losses to VA Tech and Louisville followed a 4-0 SU ATS beginning, leaving the Wolfpack in a conference hole.  An offense that averages 200 or more YPG both running and passing is a major plus.  But, it is their Super D status that matches the excellence of a Clemson stop unit that is a final indicator in our favor.  The 11-3 ATS mark at home with conference revenge seals the deal. 

You and I both know that there will be very few people who are lining up this week to fade the Clemson Tigers after the country witnessed their destruction of Miami.  But, our 10-3-1 ATS record on these games speaks for itself and is a major reason why you and I, and virtually no one else will win together with my Lone Ranger Game of the Week on the NC State Wolfpack.

College Football Picks: NC State +10.5 at 5Dimes

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