College Football Picks: Side With Arkansas +7 to Right the Ship Against Texas A&M

Charles Stark

Friday, September 25, 2015 10:58 PM GMT

Friday, Sep. 25, 2015 10:58 PM GMT

For my college football pick of the day I'm going to back the Arkansas Razorbacks plus the points against the Texas A&M Aggies.

Betting Odds
Right now across the board Arkansas is getting a touchdown. At most places those seven points have regular juice attached to it, but you can get good college football odds at taking Arkansas getting the seven at +100 at BetOnline. This is good value on a well-coached team that simply has not played well so far this season, for one of your college football picks, I recommend backing the Razorbacks in this spot.

 

Texas A&M Aggies
Offensively Texas A&M is averaging 46 point per game, 487.7 yards per game, and a third-down 47.73% conversion rate. They have not missed a beat from last year and seem to be rolling right along. Except for their first game though against Arizona State they haven't really faced a lot defeating Ball State and Nevada to be 3-0 on the season. Impressively they have been really solid on the ground rushing for 227 yards per game average. That rush game faces a stiff test today against the Arkansas rushing defense that is pretty solid. Texas A&M is a very good team but I think they are in for real challenge against an overall right now underrated Arkansas team.

On the defensive side Texas A&M has allowed 22.3 points per game, 337 total yards per game, and a third-down 23.40% conversion rate. Again, after Arizona State they really haven't face much so their numbers might be a little bit inflated. What is a concern though is their rushing defense that has allowed 161.7 yards per game. Last year Arkansas throttled them on the ground gaining over 280 yards and I don't see Texas A&M stopping them very much today in that aspect. Simply put, you know what you get from Arkansas and head coach Bret Bielema, they're going to try and run it down your throats and I think they will today with some success.

 

Arkansas Razorbacks
Offensively Arkansas has averaged 28 points per game, 476.3 yards per game, and a third-down 48.57% conversion rate. Except for the points all their offensive stats are very solid comparatively speaking nationally but they simply have not got it done in the red zone where they have a 64.29% scoring average. Today, they have an opportunity to face a less than stellar run defense and they should see a lot of success in what is their bread-and-butter. That is the guts of this play, this Arkansas offense has struggled scoring points when they should but they haven't had a problem moving the ball.

Defensively Arkansas has allowed 21.3 points per game, 336 total yards per game, and a third-down 51.22% conversion rate. They have not gotten stops when it counts and coach Bielema has mentioned going into this week that they need to get some three and outs. That will not be easy against a Texas A&M offense that has been cranking out yards and points. So far, the Razorbacks have been great in the trenches allowing only 103.3 yards rushing per game and they do have some solid returning players on that side of the ball.

I look at this game a lot like the Stanford-USC game last week. Everybody wants to jump on the Texas A&M bandwagon and against Arkansas, but not me. Just like Stanford, Arkansas is going to control the clock keep the chains moving and finally get some key stops. Look for this game to go down to the wire and for Arkansas to pull the upset.  For my pick of the day I will back Arkansas plus the points and a small play on the money line.

College Football Pick: Arkansas +7 at 5Dimes

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