College Football Picks: Side With Air Force to Cover ATS at Home vs. Wyoming

Steven Suarez

Friday, October 9, 2015 7:01 PM GMT

Friday, Oct. 9, 2015 7:01 PM GMT

Saturday night's game should be a breeze for the Falcons, who are huge favorites on the college football odds board for their home date with Wyoming.

Odds Overview
The Falcons are huge 23-point favorites on the college football odds board, with a few sportsbooks here and there even having a number of 23.5 available.

The total for this game is trading at 56.5, which means Air Force is expected to account for a huge chunk of the offensive production this Saturday. Considering Wyoming has averaged shy of 20 points per game thus far, you can see why the numbers are what they are.

 

Air Force Falcons
After having little trouble winning their first two games, the Falcons have dropped off over the last couple of weeks. First they lost 35-21 on the road against a strong Michigan State team, and last week they fell way short in a 33-11 loss to Navy. Air Force was able to make things interesting versus the Spartans, but they were very underwhelming this past week.

Look for a bounce-back performance in a much friendlier matchup this week. The Falcons have been leaning heavily on their ground game throughout the season and they're going to continue to do so. With question marks at the quarterback position, Air Force has been running the ball a ton and has been finding a lot of success. Air Force has already totaled 239 carries for 1,305 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns this season, with D.J. Johnson accounting for five of those trips to the end zone.

Averaging a whopping 326.2 rushing yards per game, the fifth-best mark in the country, we're expecting the Falcons to control the tempo of this game from start to finish. The Cowboys have offered very little resistance throughout the season, making this a great chance for Air Force to score their first win in three weeks.

 

Wyoming Cowboys
Still yet to have won a game this season, the Cowboys have been the whipping boys in the Mountain West so far, a trend that should continue. Wyoming hasn't just been losing consistently; they haven't even really been able to stay close in any of their five defeats, which doesn't bode well for this trip to play the motivated Falcons.

Scoring a dismal 19.0 points per game (239th in the country), the Cowboys have been brutal offensively. Cameron Coffman has been pretty solid as the starting quarterback, and RB Brian Hill and WR Tanner Gentry have put up solid numbers too, but overall the offense just hasn't been able to keep pace with their opponents. Of course, when you have a defense that's allowing 34.4 points a contest, that's never going to help either.

Unfortunately for Wyoming, it's hard to envision things turning around, with more difficult matchups on the horizon, starting with Saturday evening. As over three-touchdown underdogs, the Cowboys are facing their sixth straight defeat to open the 2015 season.

 

Betting Analysis
This line being so big is more of a testament to how bad the Cowboys have been rather than the Falcons being anything special. Air Force hasn't done all that much to deserve being favored by this kind of number, but Wyoming has been a total mess and it doesn't really look like things are going to change in that regard.

It's going to be tough to have much faith at all in the Cowboys with what we've seen so far, so we're going to take on all of that chalk and side with the Falcons to win big at home.

More of a fade of Wyoming than a glowing endorsement of Air Force, we're rolling with the favorites as one of our college football picks this weekend.

College Football Pick: Air Force -23 at Bovada

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