College Football Picks: Series History Favors Akron to Upset Ohio

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, October 1, 2015 9:05 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 1, 2015 9:05 PM UTC

The Ohio Bobcats visit the Akron Zips as both teams open MAC play and we will share a college football pick as our inside/out upset of the week.

Ohio (-2-) vs. Akron 2:00pm ET
Ohio visits Akron for the opening game of MAC play for each of these teams. If you have followed my MAC action this season, you know that I have been in love with this conference. MAC teams ended September 30-17 ATS in non-con play. That includes 11-2 ATS vs. Big 10 opponents. Now, these teams will battle it out to find which teams will make it to the post-season come December.  In what would seem to be a classic MAC East rivalry, the Bobcats have dominated the Zips with 7 consecutive victories. In reverse order, these wins have been by 3, 40, 6, 17, 28, 12 and 7 points. All of those get us the money at the current college football odds of today’s game. Furthering our case is the Bobcats’ fury over their first loss of the season last week by a count of 27-24 at Big 10 Minnesota. In that game, Ohio U coaches and players were distraught over a disputed last second call that allowed Minnesota to kick the game winning FG. Full focus today for Ohio U! 

Akron is an improving entity, under 4th year HC Bowden. He has repeatedly brought in transfer students, many from the state of Florida.  Look for a bounce from the 5-7 SU, 2-9 ATS mark of last year. Already the Zips are 2-2 SU. Most importantly for our purposes is their 35-14 upset victory as 8 point dog over LA Lafayette last week. They used a (+3) TO margin and gained 220 or more yards, both running and passing the ball, to cover by 29 points. Bowden may have found something with QB Woodson who rushed 8 times for 93 yards and completed 13 passes for 238 yards.  A closer inspection of the situational aspects of that game finds us knowing that it was a dead look ahead spot for LA Lafayette who has revenge against regional rival LA Tech on its plate this wee  With that in mind, we are well aware that it sets up one of our favorite situational angles in CFB. That is to play against any home dog who just won straight up on the road as underdog of 7 or more points. When specific parameters are applied, this shows a better than 60% ATS long-term winning percentage! 

As much as Akron is improving, Ohio may be improving even more in what may be the best team ever in the 11th year of the HC Solich tenure. With 17 RS and a Top 20 experienced team, Ohio has covered all 4 games on the board by a combined 38 points. They are getting the job done on both sides of the ball with a 31/415 offense. But, more impressively, a defense that is allowing 20 PPG and 356 YPG. 

Series history combined with the situation in what can only be our college football pick as the inside/out upset of the week. The odds clearly remain in our favor with the Akron upset from last week.

College Football Pick: Akron +115 at Bookmaker

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